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An Overly Long Fanmade Ace Attorney 7: Echoes of Discord Pitch: Episode 1. Possible spoilers for all main games (AA1-6)
Hey, everyone! Over the past few weeks, I've been making up a plotline that I think would fit for the inevitable Ace Attorney 7, whenever it releases. As of right now, I only have Episode 1 fully plotted out, but I'll put some of my ideas for the other cases at the end of the post as an author's note, of sorts. Considering how much I wrote for the tutorial case alone, I don't know if I'll ever continue this project, because Case 2, a case with 2 investigations and 2 trials, would basically be 4 times the length of this case, and I don't know if I have the talent to write a compelling mystery that would do a case of that length justice. The overall concept of the game would be to focus mainly on Athena and Phoenix, and it would involve Phoenix attempting to institute the Jurist System while Athena would have to deal with the Phantom's organization and her past at the Cosmos Space Center and in university. The lawyer-case distribution would be as follows: Phoenix gets 7-1 (tutorial) and 7-4 (filler), Athena would get 7-2, 7-3, and 7-5, which would all be plot relevant, and Apollo would get a Rise from the Ashes style case in Khura'in, which would be unlocked after completing the game instead of being offered as a DLC case. As this is my ideal version of Ace Attorney 7, I've taken some liberties that the writers at Capcom might not do, as I've taken the Payne brothers out of the main story entirely, but they'll still be in the game in the Phoenix Wright: Asinine Attorney case, which is unlocked after beating the tutorial case. Also, a beloved character from the original trilogy is the victim of the first case of the game, which might be controversial. But I think that the story will be overall more compelling with the changes that I've made, so without further ado, here's the first episode of Ace Attorney: Echoes of Discord! ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Episode 1: Turnabout Terror Date: Late March 2029 Location: Skye Detective Agency Defendant: Ema Skye Attorney: Phoenix Wright Co-Counsel: Athena Cykes Synopsis: Nine months have passed since the revolution in Khura’in, and after many deliberations, Phoenix has finally regained the trust of the legal system of LA and instituted the Jurist System, which has now been slightly modified since the events of Apollo Justice, the biggest change being the fact that the jurors are present in the court room, like in DGS. For the first official case under the Jurist System, Phoenix is defending Ema Skye, who has been accused of murdering her older sister, Lana Skye, at the Skye Detective Agency. Ema had been working a case abroad in Khura’in, and as soon as she returned to the US, she went to visit her sister, who became a private investigator after losing faith in the justice system because of Phoenix’s disbarment and the UR-1 incident. When Ema entered the office however, she found her sister dead from an apparent poisoning. Desperate to find out who did it, she dusted the entire scene for fingerprints, not even thinking about preserving the scene. But while she was in the middle of her forensic investigation, Lana’s co-worker, Elias Coggs (Age ???) walked in on her, and contacted the police. When the officers arrived, it was discovered that Lana ingested some Atroquinine poison from her cup of tea, and since it hadn’t been manufactured in the country for two years, Ema became the prime suspect, since she just came back from Khura’in. In the defendant lobby, Phoenix and Athena are discussing the case with Ema, and she claims that her own fingerprints were found on the bottle of poison, to which Athena and Phoenix are shocked. But she rationalizes that she must have touched the bottle when she was in a state of panic while investigating the crime scene. In the middle of their discussion, Juniper Woods enters the lobby, and she explains to Athena and Phoenix that she will be the forewoman of the jury today. She is nervous, but she’s also treating this as her first official trial experience for when she becomes a judge herself. She gives Phoenix and Athena a newspaper article that is advertising the current trial, saying that she had a hunch that they’d need it. The bailiffs call for the trial to start, and Ema mutters under her breath that the “glimmerous fop” is going to make a spectacle of her sister’s murder. The trial begins, and Klavier Gavin is revealed to be the prosecutor in charge of this case. He reveals that he’d decided to take the case due to the recent shortage of prosecutors due to the Paynes and others being fired for their incompetence and corruption by Miles Edgeworth. He displays remorse over being the reason why Phoenix lost his badge seven years ago but says that he’s still fired up for a rematch. The judge introduces the 5 jurors for the trial, who are Juniper Woods (No. 1), a male reporter from the Reality News Network (No. 2), Delicia Scones (No. 3), a female computer programmer from Blue Screens Inc. (No. 4), and a young butler resembling Shelly de Killer (No. 5). The judge then admits that he hasn’t studied up on how the reformed jurist system works, and asks Phoenix if he could give him a refresher on how the trial would work, which would serve as the tutorial for the case. Klavier calls Ema to the stand as his first witness, and she reluctantly agrees to testify about what happened on that day. She has a press-all testimony, which is pretty much identical to what she told Phoenix and Athena in the lobby, but after the testimony ends, the jury goes into a panic because all of them, minus Juniper, are convinced of Ema’s guilt. Athena becomes overwhelmed from the discord from all the jurors’ hearts, and this is where the new trial gameplay mechanic, Discordant Reasoning, is introduced. This would be similar to the Panic Debate from Danganronpa V3, where you have to pick out the statement out of the 5 jurors that’s causing the discord, based on reading their emotions like in the Mood Matrix. The Mood Matrix has now been relegated to investigations because of reasons pertaining to the main prosecutor of the game, and now works similarly to Logic Chess from Investigations 2. After presenting the article that Juniper gave them to the juror that caused the discord, the reporter from the Reality News Network, Ema resumes her testimony. She assumes that her sister’s killer had recently fled the scene, since she had recently succumbed to the poison when she arrived at the crime scene, but Phoenix points out that the killer could’ve left way earlier, since Atroquinine is a slow acting poison. Ema then gets emotional, saying that she got so caught up in the moment seeing her sister dead that she couldn’t perform a proper investigation into her death. She is overcome by remorse due to the knowledge that she never would’ve been quick enough to stop her sister’s killer. She outright blames Klavier for what happened, saying that if he hadn’t accused Phoenix of forging evidence nine years ago, then Lana wouldn’t have lost faith in the court system, which wouldn’t have lead to her becoming a P.I. after getting out of prison. Klavier reassures Ema, asking her if she knows the real reason why he took the trial. It turns out, he was certain of her innocence from the beginning, and intended to use the common sense of the Jurist System to prove her innocence. He says that he understands why she might feel the way she does about him, but the show must go on, and the only way the truth will ever be reached is if the defendant tells everything that they know, even if it’s just a hunch. With newfound courage, Ema posits that there might be a clue in Lana’s files on her computer, as Lana had confided in her that she’d been performing an investigation on a high-profile case the last time they saw each other. Luckily for them, Elias Coggs had already looked through Lana’s files and emails, and was waiting in the lobby to testify. Klavier excuses Ema from the stand for the time being, and calls Elias Coggs to the stand. He appears to be a middle-aged man with a mechanical prosthetic arm, leg, and eye, giving him the appearance of a cyborg. Klavier asks Coggs to state his name and occupation, and he complies, but when probed about his past, he states that it’s classified information. He was put into the Witness Protection Program a long time ago after an incident involving his accident, and can’t disclose anything about his past that isn’t related to the case. His testimony begins, and he states that on Lana’s computer, he found that on the day of the incident, she had been exchanging emails with two different people. The first being Connie Scout (Age 29), her most recent client, and the second being Phoebe Coronus (Age 41), an old friend of hers from overseas. After probing into his testimony, he admits that the case that Lana was investigating was an international affair, and that Coronus was helping her in the investigation. He also reveals that it appears that a USB was stolen from Lana’s office, but again, he cannot reveal its contents. Suspicions are raised immediately on Coggs, but Klavier verifies that he had an alibi, as he had been at his doctor’s office all afternoon. As Coronus is still in Europe, it becomes evident that the prime suspect for the murder has to be Connie Scout, who is a computer science major at Ivy University. The judge calls for a 30 minute recess, but right before it begins, Coggs requests that Phoenix and Athena get to the bottom of Lana’s death, as the case at hand means a lot to him. During the recess, Ema apologizes for her outburst in court, and explains the case that Lana, Coronus and Coggs were investigating in more detail. Apparently, the organization they were looking into was an international spy ring that had previously mainly been involved in various acts of cyberterrorism, but she reveals that it was actually the very same organization that sent the Phantom over during the UR-1 Incident nine years ago. Athena is shocked, as she recounts how that was the same organization that killed her mother and caused the incident at the Cosmos Space Center two years ago. Ema is surprised to hear this, as Lana hadn’t informed her of the exact details of the case, and she realizes it was probably out of fear that she herself would become a target of the organization. Suddenly, Trucy Wright appears in the defendant lobby with two important pieces of evidence retrieved from Miles Edgeworth, a report of a supposed smuggling of contraband into the country and a breach of cybersecurity at the Criminal Affairs Department. Trucy questions how these pieces of evidence pertain to the case at hand, but Phoenix and Athena clearly have a suspect in mind. The bailiffs announce that the recess is over, and Trucy says that she’ll be watching the trial from the gallery. Court reconvenes, and Klavier calls Connie to the stand. She has a visor over her face and has orange dyed hair like Athena, but otherwise she has the appearance of a normal university student. She introduces herself as a foreign exchange student from Borginia, and explains that Connie Scout was the name she chose for herself when she came to study from abroad. Klavier asks her how she knew the defendant, to which she responds that she met her at a Forensics Investigation Seminar that was being held at the University a month ago, along with Ema Skye. While she was there, she was given a luminol bottle from Ema as a gift for attending it. Afterward, she asked Lana Skye to investigate a crime of her own, though she doesn’t reveal what it is. Throughout her testimony, her lies are exposed, and she becomes the prime suspect for the breach of cybersecurity at Criminal Affairs and the murder of Lana Skye. Phoenix argues that it would’ve been feasible for Scout to have been the one who had the poison smuggled into the country. But the final contradiction in the case is how Ema’s fingerprints managed to get on the bottle of Atroquinine. The thought route begins, and after deducing that she had likely been a part of the Phantom’s organization, that she was likely the one who hacked into the Criminal Affairs Department, and considering her meeting with Ema and Lana one month ago, it becomes apparent that she could’ve obtained the fingerprints off of the luminol bottle and modified the fingerprints on the bottle of poison to look like Ema’s using the information obtained from her hacking of the Criminal Affairs Department, just like how the Phantom had framed Athena at the Space Center two years prior. Connie then confesses everything. She had been a member of the Phantom’s organization, and she had been attempting to erase as many traces of her organization’s crimes that she could. Her only reason for attending the seminar one month ago was to get some info on Lana Skye, so that she could trail her and learn everything that she knew about her own organization. She arranged for a meeting to discuss a possible case for Lana to take on, but that was all a farce-what she really wanted was the USB Lana had in her possession. When she wasn’t looking, she slipped the poison into Lana’s tea, and left the scene after stealing what she needed. When probed about the USB, she says that she already passed it on to another member of the organization. With the suspect having confessed, Klavier calls Ema back to the stand. He and Ema have a conversation, and while Ema is still annoyed by his carefree attitude, she acknowledges that she would’ve been found guilty if Klavier hadn’t given her the opportunity to speak, and thanks him for his help. The judge then pronounces Ema not guilty. In the defendant lobby, Ema thanks Phoenix and Athena for defending her, and they’re soon joined by Klavier and Trucy. Ema, while thankful that the gang found her innocent, is still understandably traumatized over her sister’s death. She expresses doubts about her career choice, considering she never imagined she’d have to investigate her own sister’s body, and she’s now considering leaving her position permanently. Phoenix presents her the luminol bottle that she gave to Scout, and asks her to remember when she began to take an interest in forensics. After recounting how her sister had given her a forensics investigations book when she was young, and briefly referencing the events of Rise from the Ashes, Phoenix reminds her of all of the strides she’s made since then, and all of the times she’s helped the Wright Anything Agency solve cases in the past thanks to her impeccable forensics work. He then reminds her that he had to deal with many bumps in the road himself throughout his career as an attorney, and that he had to learn some lessons that changed his outlook on the legal system. He encourages her to follow her own path in life, but reminds her that he and Athena would greatly miss having her around to help solve cases. Ema, moved by Phoenix’s speech, thanks him for the kind words. Trucy then brings up one last thing that she still doesn’t understand about the trial, those being who Elias Coggs and Phoebe Coronus are. Ema explains that she doesn’t really know who Elias Coggs is, but she does know who Coronus is. She was Ema’s former mentor that took care of her when she first went to Europe to study, and she’s now an international forensics prosecutor. It turns out she intended to be present in the gallery for Ema’s trial, but due to a delay in her flight to LA, she couldn’t make it. Ema then theorizes that working a case with her former mentor might help reinvigorate her love for forensics. Her and Klavier have to attend to some business at the Prosecutor’s Office, and they leave together. To wrap up the case, Trucy brings up three invitations that Juniper had passed on to her for Phoenix, Athena, and herself to attend a Murder Mystery Party at the Woods Manor out in the mountains as a celebration of Juniper recently graduating from Themis Academy while also serving as a way of thanking Phoenix and Athena for defending her two years prior. Trucy declines her invitation, as she has to practice for her first international gig that she’ll be performing with Klavier and Lamiroir, but she encourages Phoenix and Athena to go. They both agree to go, and the case ends with Phoenix’s internal monologue reminiscing about all of the trials and tribulations he’s had to go through to revamp the legal system, and that he never could’ve gotten there without the help of his colleagues. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Author's notes: -I know that killing off Lana Skye might be controversial, but I felt that she made the most sense as the first victim, considering her friend from Europe, who I've named Phoebe Coronus, would make a more interesting rival for Athena, as her adherence to the scientific method and traditionalist views on the Jurist System would be a perfect foil to Athena's more psychological driven methods and her desire to revolutionize the court system along with Phoenix. It also gives Ema another character arc of doubting if her childhood dream was really her true calling in life, which I feel would be a natural progression for Ema's character, since she has a different conflict in every game that she appears in. Finally, it just gives more opportunity to expand on Athena's time studying in Europe, since Ema and Coronus could now fit into that timeline organically. Lana's role in the story wouldn't be forgotten after case 1 either, as two of the most important characters in the game have close connections to her, which would have a huge impact on the trajectory of the story as a whole, which I feel is an important aspect that the first case needs to establish. -The pun names for this case are: Elias Coggs (Alias and Cogs, which refers to his past under the Witness Protection Program as well as his cyborg like appearance.) Connie Scout (Con and Scout, because she's conning everybody into thinking she's just an ordinary university student while also being a spy for the Phantom's organization.) Phoebe Coronus (Her last name refers to her profession as a coroner. Her first and last name actually have a secret meaning as well if one of the letters from her last name is removed, but I'll leave it up to you to see if you can decipher the real meaning behind her name. -Lastly, here are the basic plotlines for the other cases of the game. These are only going to be a couple sentences each, since this post has gone on long enough already. Episode 2-Turnabout Judgment: Picking up right where we left off, Phoenix and Athena attend the Murder Mystery Party organized by Juniper's grandmother, Willow Woods, and Juniper notes that the victim in the game bears similarities to how her own grandfather died a year ago. But when one of the guests at the party winds up dead, it's Juniper's grandmother, a former judge, that ends up in the defendant's seat, and Juniper and Athena team up to acquit her of all charges against prosecutor Phoebe Coronus while Phoenix is off helping another guest at the party with a matter of their own. Loosely based on a fancase on Ace Attorney Online: A Game of Turnabout. Episode 3-The Sponsored Turnabout: During the Summer Olympics, Juniper, Athena, and Simon Blackquill all attend a game together. But when a stray firecracker causes an explosion that causes some debris to crash onto the referee for the game, a former Borginian athlete who had a grudge against the victim and is suspected to be part of the Phantom's organization ends up in the defendant's chair, and Blackquill encourages Athena and Juniper to take on the case due to a previous connection with the defendant, and the trio have to rethink their own biases against the suspect to eventually take down the true culprit of the case, the Executive of the Reality News Network who perpetuated the myth of the Dark Age of the Law after the UR-1 incident. Coronus is still the prosecutor for this case. Episode 4-Turnabout Roulette: In the filler case of the game, Trucy makes reservations at a fancy bar where she's planning on showing Phoenix part of her upcoming performance, but when the two realize that she accidentally made reservations at the Rivales Casino, and a shooting occurs in the middle of the day, Phoenix is forced into defending Brawly Rivales after his own father was murdered. Coronus is the prosecutor again in this trial, but she's noticably more lenient on Phoenix. The main focus of the case would be on the relationship between Phoenix and Trucy. Episode 5-Turnabout for Justice: A science expo is being held at the Cosmos Space Center, and the five participants in the showcase are Ema Skye, Phoebe Coronus, Elias Coggs, a C.E.O. of a famous company, who is also sponsoring the event, and surprisingly Aura Blackquill are all participating in the event. But when an accidental explosion occurs in the middle of the event, everyone is evacuated from the scene with two notable exceptions: Phoebe Coronus and Aura Blackquill. After the fire dies down a bit, some officers go in to investigate the scene, and are surprised to find Aura Blackquill leaning over the victim, Phoebe Coronus's body. Aura Blackquill is named the prime suspect for the case, and it's up to Athena and Blackquill to find her innocence, as Phoenix and Trucy don't want anything to do with her after the kidnapping incident two years ago, and Juniper is rooting for her guilt as well, since she remembers how she used to hate Athena all those years ago. Willow Woods would be the judge for this trial, and Miles Edgeworth calls in prosecutor Franziska von Karma to head the case. Episode Special-Turnabout Reconciliation: It's been one year since Garan has been dethroned, and Khura'in is hosting an international arts festival as an act of goodwill to its new allies. Trucy, Klavier, and Lamiroir are all participating in their own act in the show, and Ema was invited by Prosecutor Nahyuta Sahdmadhi as well. But when a murder happens in the middle of the show, Lamiroir is under suspicion of murder, and Apollo and Trucy finally learn their familial secret. Prosecutor Sahdmadhi is the prosecutor for the case, and Rayfa and Amara make some cameo appearances as well. Sorry for the long post lol. Tell me what you think of these ideas in the comments.
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WinsPark Casino Review
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WinsPark Odds
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In Conclusion
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Gratorama Casino Review
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Once you’re actually through and beyond the initial landing screen things definitely improve visually, with some nice use of cartoonish graphics to deliver messages and set the ambiance right up to Fun Mark 10. Focusing on scratch card and slot games, the experience of the team responsible for piecing it all together speaks for itself really. Founded in 2008, around a decade of experience has gone into choosing the right content and putting the necessary safeguards in place to ensure this is a top-notch experience, and that’s immediately evident.
Good Odds
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Gratorama Promotions
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Gratorama Games
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In Conclusion
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Grande Vegas Casino Review
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Grande Vegas Casino Software
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Thinking about what could be the big December update and with hopes of Liberty City arriving at the game, I decided to do a little research and identified some points and facts that may, perhaps, confirm the possible expansion of maps: 1-October / 2013 Rockstar announces new DLC for GTA Online. At the end of the article, mention is made of content for the story mode, which has not happened until today. 2- June / 2016 R * developer put in his portfolio an image of Central Park rendered on the graphics engine of GTA V (apparently from the PS3 / X360 generation). Could this be a possible update to the story mode that had been abandoned / postponed? 3- January / 2017 OpenIV team announces Liberty City mod for GTA V with a launch date for July 2017. 4- June / 2017 Rockstar takes action to ban GTA V mods. 5- July / 2017 Rockstar agrees to release the mods, however, creates a series of clauses for permission; among them is a ban on the use or import of another IP (including another Rockstar IP) in the project (something that would be done to bring Liberty City to GTA V. 6- November / 2019 Banda City Morgue announces in its instgram news with Rockstar Games for the summer of 2020 (A Hip Hop band from New York ** ok, that may not say anything but, I found it interesting to mention). 7- July / 2020 Rockstar announces the biggest update for GTA Online taking the blows to a completely new location. (All scams were in new places, regardless of whether it is just an interior or a new building - like the casino - all scams are in unprecedented places but, not to the point of considering completely new) 8- August / 2020 Summer update comes to GTA Online. QUB3D arcade is added to the game, where Rockstar shows in the bulletin that the game came directly from Liberty City. 9- August / 2020 Free "Tw@" T-shirt for all players, evidenced by Rockstar that it is a reminder of the heyday of dirty internet cafes in Liberty City. In my analysis, Liberty City has been in the Rockstar project for a long time, but perhaps because of other demands (like Red Dead Redemption 2) or, simply, due to the lack of processing power of the old generation of consoles (PS3 and X360), the project has been delayed, postponed or possibly temporarily discarded. With the launch of RDR 2 next, the team may have gone back to reviewing the project in 2017, but it was threatened to realize that a group of modders could launch the same idea before them, and their attitude was to ban and prosecute those groups. With the great repercussion and protest in the face of this attitude, Rockstar saw the need to yield its decision however, it still needed to ensure that the modders project would not be launched, so the clauses for the use of mods were created, among them, one that prevented the import of IP in the game. Now, with the project completed, Rockstar, in its greatest style ever known, has been giving clues from Liberty City, from newsletters with vague phrases, gifts and souvenirs from the city, among others. Knowing that this, according to the developer, is the biggest update of the game and it is also obvious the need for a major update to keep the game alive and on the rise for another time to calm the spirits and buy more time for your next game, GTA V can indeed receive its first and largest map expansion, making GTA Online a virtually new game, with new streets, missions and places to conquer. I emphasize again that this is just my opinion based on the interpretation of some facts that occurred since the launch of the game, leaving aside any information coming from leakers (with or without credibility) only real facts. And, of course, the interpretation in this way we can reach that conclusion, just as if interpreted differently we will reach different conclusions. In addition, this is just a testimonial from a big fan of the game who is hopeful about an update of this size. Greetings to all and sorry for my English :)
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 15th, 2020
Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 15th, 2020.
After big sell-off, stock market will be wary of virus and Fed testimony in week ahead - (Source)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reassure markets next week the central bank will do whatever it takes to help the economy heal. That should be enough to keep investors moving into stocks that benefit from an economic rebound and push the S&P 500 into the green for 2020. Stocks could be caught in a tug-of-war in the week ahead, as investors weigh the potential positives of a reopening economy against worry that the coronavirus continues to spread. In the past week, the S&P 500′s sharp gains briefly drove the index into positive territory for the year, before a bruising sell-off at the end of the week. Stocks were more than 47% above the March 23 low before investors got spooked by signs the coronavirus is picking up in some areas. The Fed also dampened sentiment when it released economic forecasts Wednesday that showed a slow recovery and interest rates at zero through the end of 2022. Investors will hear more of the same when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks before Congress this Tuesday and Wednesday in his semi-annual economic testimony. He may provide more clarity on the Fed’s bond buying and other policy moves. Retail sales for May are released Tuesday, and that will be an important look at consumer spending activity. It is the most important data in the coming week, other than the weekly jobless claims report on Thursday. Stocks rose on Friday with the S&P 500 up more than 1% after Thursday’s sharp sell-off that sent the index down nearly 6%. Treasury yields, which move opposite price, also moved sharply lower as investors moved to the safety of bonds. The 10-year yield was back to 0.70%, well off the high of 0.95% in the week earlier. “We’ve been overbought for awhile and digesting gains would be natural,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Stovall said the fact that 97% of the S&P 500 companies’ stocks were above their 50-day moving average this past week was a warning. The 50-day moving average is a momentum indicator, and if a stock or index rises above it, it is usually a positive, but if they all do, it’s a contrarian warning. “Historically that’s just too high ... and also the P/E on the S&P was 25.1 of forward 12-months earnings, which is a 52% premium to the P/E average since 2000,” he said. The P/E, or the price-to-earnings ratio, is an important tool to value stocks, and it averages around 16.5 times. In the sell-off, stocks that would benefit from the economy’s reopening were the hardest hit. Investors had been jumping into those names, driving them higher at a dizzying pace. They were also the sectors that were last to join the rally, like banks, casinos, airlines and hotels. “Once the pullback runs its course I think investors will move back again into the sectors and subsectors that were most beaten up in the bear market,” said Stovall. Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com, said he lightened up his holdings earlier in the week. “There were some clues early in the week that the market was vulnerable, like when the S&P closed below 3,191 on Tuesday. You had some feverish trading in some of the very speculative names,” he said. Stovall said other headwinds hang over the market, and one big one is the upcoming presidential election, which could become a bigger influence on the market. RealClearPolitics has President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph Biden by 8.1 points in the latest average of polls. “Trump’s numbers are just looking so bad, and if the Fed needs to keep interest rates at zero and we have the potential for a resurgence in Covid cases, then Trump is not going to benefit from an economic recovery, and as a result, that gives Biden a better chance of being elected,” said Stovall. “It’s not necessarily that the market dislikes Biden, but they dislike uncertainty. And a decline in equity prices would be representative of that uncertainty.”
Consumer barometer
Retail sales are typically a barometer for consumer spending, and when Americans were shut in their homes they did much less shopping than usual. April data showed a 16.7% drop in sales, but consumers did spend online. Economists are watching Tuesday’s report on May sales closely, particularly after the May jobs report had a large upside surprise. There were 2.5 million jobs added in May, instead of an expected loss of 8.3 million. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said business-to-business spending data for May implies that retail sales were flat compared with April’s depressed level and could be down 22% from a year ago. Zandi used data from Cortera, which collects information on about $1.5 trillion in business-to-business spending. In an analysis of spending by retailers in May, it found there were gains from April in some categories, including furniture, gasoline stations and restaurants. “Clothing and sporting goods store sales have been crushed, and that continued in May. Restaurants, gasoline stations and furniture stores have been hit hard, but showed strong improvement in May. Food and health and personal care stores have done well through the crisis, but gave some of that back in May,” notes Zandi. “Online retailers, general merchandise stores (which includes WalMart and Target), and building material and garden supply stores (Home Depot and Lowes) have navigated the crisis well, and May was another solid month.” Zandi said weakness in apparel and sporting goods washed out the gains in other areas.
Fed ahead
Strategists said Powell did not surprise the market with his comments this past week, but his sober approach reminded investors that the Fed policy will have to be in place for a very long time to pull the economy out of its deep rut. That will keep markets on high alert during his two days of testimony. “I think the cat’s out of the bag. I don’t think he can sugarcoat it. The thing he’s got to worry about is he needs help. He needs Congress and the administration to come up with another fiscal rescue package. He can’t do it on his own,” said Zandi. “He has to keep the pressure on them and get a piece of legislation before they go on August recess. ... He’s speaking as much to the American people as he is to the policy makers.” Zandi said the Fed has acted aggressively and swiftly to unfreeze credit markets when they locked up in March, but the economy needs more stimulus ahead of a wave of potential business defaults and with a high level of unemployment. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and on Wednesday the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities. “I think he continues to lay the foundation for policy changes to come,” said Zandi. “He’s strongly suggesting there’s going to be more monetary support, and that would come in the form of a few things - it would be performance dependent forward guidance. ... He’s going to make it clear until the economy is at full employment and inflation is at least at target, if not above.” Zandi said Powell may discuss yield curve controls, which would mean the Fed would set targets for interest rate levels in the Treasury market, and make purchases to influence rates. Some economists believe the Fed will adopt that tool before the end of the year. “I think he’s going to more clearly define the amount of QE they’re doing going forward. He’ll try to preserve some optionality, but he’ll try to make it known, they’re buying a lot of bonds for a long time to come,” Zandi said. But the hearings could be more politicized, and Powell may be criticized by Congress for helping financial markets more than Main Street, said John Briggs, head of strategy at NatWest Markets. “I’d be surprised if there’s a lot new, given it comes on the heels of the FOMC meeting,” Briggs said.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
“Stocks take an escalator up, but an elevator down.” — Old investment axiom The saying above sure happened yesterday. In the end, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.9% for the worst day since March 16 and the first three-day losing streak in more than three months. What does it mean? We’ve been on record that we expect some type of well-deserved pullback or at least consolidation after the 45% bounce off of the March 23 lows and the best 50-day rally ever. Then add in the fact that June has been the worst month of the year for stocks since 2000 and some type of weakness is perfectly logical here and now. “In many ways, this is one of the most overbought stock markets we’ve ever seen. Now the catch to this is previous times we’ve seen major levels similar to now have been closer to the beginning of bull markets than the end of bull markets,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. This is now one of the greatest surges off a major low ever. It is perfectly normal to see a drawdown of double digits after the initial surge weakens. This could be happening now.
Also, when more than 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 50-day moving average, this shows solid longer-term results. Again, suggesting that very overbought isn’t always a bad thing.
There was a huge spike in stocks marking new monthly highs, again historically an overbought signal. This opens the door for some near-term weakness, but is a very positive sign longer-term.
Last, in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was recently more than 13% above the 50-day moving average, one of the highest levels ever. The good news is one-year later stocks were higher every single time. Yet another clue that historically overbought isn’t always a bad thing for the bulls.
A record run, over-the-top excitement from small traders, the Nasdaq at 10,000, historically high multiples, and seasonality all could be a factor in why a pullback here could be perfectly normal. In fact, if you are bullish, after a 45% rally, one of the best things would be for prices to reset some here over the coming months. We would be a buyer of weakness and use it as an opportunity for longer-term price appreciation.
Persistent Volatility Runs Into Resistance & Exuberant Sentiment
We have all been gobsmacked by velocity and strength of this V-shaped rally off the March 23 bear market low. For the record this rally became an official Ned Davis Research defined bull market on May 26 when DJIA was up 30% from the low when it made a new recovery high after 50 calendar days (see NDR definitions below). And this was on the back of the shortest bear market on record, which lasted only 40 days. Today’s market comeuppance is an important reminder that we need to be patient with this market and heed our cautious analysis and stance. This is still the “Worst Six Months” and as we warned in the May Outlook when the market is down during the “Best Six Months” (November-April) as they were in 2020, the “Worst Six Months” (May-October) were down or flat 86% of the time with a median S&P decline of -6.7% since 1950. Other seasonal indicators are also flashing the caution sign. This year’s negative January Barometer and breached December DJIA low, point to possible retests of the lows and choppy, volatile trading over the next several months. See the updated composite graph of the seasonal pattern for these 22 years since 1950 in the June Outlook. It appears that quite a fair amount of hope was built into the rally. Lots of hope that everything is just going back to the way it was real soon. But COVID cases are on the climb again and folks are concerned that a pause and/or reverse of reopening could delay the economic recovery and derail the bull. Up until the past few days it felt like mid-February again with the market ignoring economic and corporate data as momentum pushed everything higher. The jobs report was a bit unbelievable and then Fed Chairman Powell’s candor and reserved outlook at yesterday’s press conference put the fear right back into the market today. Meanwhile the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently estimates that 2020 Q2 GDP growth will be down -48.5%. Sentiment had also become rather exuberant as the Weekly CBOE Equity Only Put/Call ratio we track in the “Pulse of the Market” hit 0.43 last week – its lowest level since the week ending 4/10/2010 about three weeks before the infamous flash crash. Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors are now up to 56.9%. Correction advisors are down to 22.5% while Bearish advisors have slipped further to 20.6%, putting us at caution levels. Technically, things deteriorated rapidly today. After blasting through several levels of resistance we have been tracking as shown in the chart here S&P 500 stalled at 3210 and plunged 5.9% today through 3115 support/resistance and closed just below 3010 support/resistance which sits at the 2019 summer highs. The next major support level below here is 2725 right near where the 50-day moving average turned up in mid-May, which would be a 15.7% correction from the recent recovery high reached this past Monday, June 8.
Ned Davis Research bull and bear market definitions: A cyclical bull market requires a 30% rise in the DJIA after 50 calendar days or a 13% rise after 155 calendar days. Reversals of 30% in the Value Line Geometric Index since 1965 also qualify. A cyclical bear market requires a 30% drop in the DJIA after 50 calendar days or a 13% decline after 145 calendar days. Reversals in the Value Line Geometric Index also qualify. Bull and bear markets are measured at peak and trough dates, so both the time and price criteria must be met as of the peak and trough dates.
More Volatility Likely During June Options Expiration Week and Beyond
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, DJIA has been up ten of the last seventeen years. Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 26 of the last 30 years with an average decline of 1.07%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared slightly better during the week after over the same 30-year span, declining 0.72% and 0.23% respectively on average.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Kroger Co. $32.26
**Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.88 per share on revenue of $40.12 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 22.22% with revenue increasing by 7.70%. Short interest has increased by 55.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $28.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,009 contracts of the $36.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.
**MFA Financial Inc (MFA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 122.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 67.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 55.0% below its 200 day moving average of $5.80. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 9,992 contracts of the $4.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. The stock has averaged a 1.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.
**Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.92 per share on revenue of $400.24 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.85) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 35% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3,940.00% with revenue decreasing by 30.80%. Short interest has decreased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1,026.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 47.9% below its 200 day moving average of $41.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,979 contracts of the $1.50 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings.
**JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, June 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $1.00 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 400.00% with revenue increasing by 15.27%. Short interest has decreased by 4.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.6% below its 200 day moving average of $19.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,793 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 15.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.7% move in recent quarters.
**Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $10.85 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.20 to $1.28 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.86% with revenue decreasing by 2.57%. Short interest has decreased by 12.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.2% below its 200 day moving average of $53.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 25,106 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters.
**Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.29 per share on revenue of $5.73 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.77% with revenue increasing by 3.00%. Short interest has decreased by 0.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 97.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $56.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,571 contracts of the $65.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters.
**CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Friday, June 19, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $2.39 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 27% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 105.03% with revenue decreasing by 55.46%. Short interest has increased by 0.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 83.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $85.05. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $92.50 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
**Townsquare Media, Inc. (TSQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Monday, June 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $95.77 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.11% with revenue increasing by 2.23%. On Monday, June 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 624 contracts of the $7.50 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020.
**H&R Block Inc. (HRB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.01 per share on revenue of $1.73 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.23 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 37% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.32% with revenue decreasing by 25.83%. Short interest has decreased by 31.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.3% below its 200 day moving average of $21.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 29, 2020 there was some notable buying of 11,609 contracts of the $17.00 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.5% move in recent quarters.
**Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, June 15, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 22.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 18.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.1% below its 200 day moving average of $17.10. Option traders are pricing in a 16.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 15th, 2020
Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 15th, 2020.
After big sell-off, stock market will be wary of virus and Fed testimony in week ahead - (Source)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reassure markets next week the central bank will do whatever it takes to help the economy heal. That should be enough to keep investors moving into stocks that benefit from an economic rebound and push the S&P 500 into the green for 2020. Stocks could be caught in a tug-of-war in the week ahead, as investors weigh the potential positives of a reopening economy against worry that the coronavirus continues to spread. In the past week, the S&P 500′s sharp gains briefly drove the index into positive territory for the year, before a bruising sell-off at the end of the week. Stocks were more than 47% above the March 23 low before investors got spooked by signs the coronavirus is picking up in some areas. The Fed also dampened sentiment when it released economic forecasts Wednesday that showed a slow recovery and interest rates at zero through the end of 2022. Investors will hear more of the same when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks before Congress this Tuesday and Wednesday in his semi-annual economic testimony. He may provide more clarity on the Fed’s bond buying and other policy moves. Retail sales for May are released Tuesday, and that will be an important look at consumer spending activity. It is the most important data in the coming week, other than the weekly jobless claims report on Thursday. Stocks rose on Friday with the S&P 500 up more than 1% after Thursday’s sharp sell-off that sent the index down nearly 6%. Treasury yields, which move opposite price, also moved sharply lower as investors moved to the safety of bonds. The 10-year yield was back to 0.70%, well off the high of 0.95% in the week earlier. “We’ve been overbought for awhile and digesting gains would be natural,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Stovall said the fact that 97% of the S&P 500 companies’ stocks were above their 50-day moving average this past week was a warning. The 50-day moving average is a momentum indicator, and if a stock or index rises above it, it is usually a positive, but if they all do, it’s a contrarian warning. “Historically that’s just too high ... and also the P/E on the S&P was 25.1 of forward 12-months earnings, which is a 52% premium to the P/E average since 2000,” he said. The P/E, or the price-to-earnings ratio, is an important tool to value stocks, and it averages around 16.5 times. In the sell-off, stocks that would benefit from the economy’s reopening were the hardest hit. Investors had been jumping into those names, driving them higher at a dizzying pace. They were also the sectors that were last to join the rally, like banks, casinos, airlines and hotels. “Once the pullback runs its course I think investors will move back again into the sectors and subsectors that were most beaten up in the bear market,” said Stovall. Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com, said he lightened up his holdings earlier in the week. “There were some clues early in the week that the market was vulnerable, like when the S&P closed below 3,191 on Tuesday. You had some feverish trading in some of the very speculative names,” he said. Stovall said other headwinds hang over the market, and one big one is the upcoming presidential election, which could become a bigger influence on the market. RealClearPolitics has President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph Biden by 8.1 points in the latest average of polls. “Trump’s numbers are just looking so bad, and if the Fed needs to keep interest rates at zero and we have the potential for a resurgence in Covid cases, then Trump is not going to benefit from an economic recovery, and as a result, that gives Biden a better chance of being elected,” said Stovall. “It’s not necessarily that the market dislikes Biden, but they dislike uncertainty. And a decline in equity prices would be representative of that uncertainty.”
Consumer barometer
Retail sales are typically a barometer for consumer spending, and when Americans were shut in their homes they did much less shopping than usual. April data showed a 16.7% drop in sales, but consumers did spend online. Economists are watching Tuesday’s report on May sales closely, particularly after the May jobs report had a large upside surprise. There were 2.5 million jobs added in May, instead of an expected loss of 8.3 million. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said business-to-business spending data for May implies that retail sales were flat compared with April’s depressed level and could be down 22% from a year ago. Zandi used data from Cortera, which collects information on about $1.5 trillion in business-to-business spending. In an analysis of spending by retailers in May, it found there were gains from April in some categories, including furniture, gasoline stations and restaurants. “Clothing and sporting goods store sales have been crushed, and that continued in May. Restaurants, gasoline stations and furniture stores have been hit hard, but showed strong improvement in May. Food and health and personal care stores have done well through the crisis, but gave some of that back in May,” notes Zandi. “Online retailers, general merchandise stores (which includes WalMart and Target), and building material and garden supply stores (Home Depot and Lowes) have navigated the crisis well, and May was another solid month.” Zandi said weakness in apparel and sporting goods washed out the gains in other areas.
Fed ahead
Strategists said Powell did not surprise the market with his comments this past week, but his sober approach reminded investors that the Fed policy will have to be in place for a very long time to pull the economy out of its deep rut. That will keep markets on high alert during his two days of testimony. “I think the cat’s out of the bag. I don’t think he can sugarcoat it. The thing he’s got to worry about is he needs help. He needs Congress and the administration to come up with another fiscal rescue package. He can’t do it on his own,” said Zandi. “He has to keep the pressure on them and get a piece of legislation before they go on August recess. ... He’s speaking as much to the American people as he is to the policy makers.” Zandi said the Fed has acted aggressively and swiftly to unfreeze credit markets when they locked up in March, but the economy needs more stimulus ahead of a wave of potential business defaults and with a high level of unemployment. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and on Wednesday the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities. “I think he continues to lay the foundation for policy changes to come,” said Zandi. “He’s strongly suggesting there’s going to be more monetary support, and that would come in the form of a few things - it would be performance dependent forward guidance. ... He’s going to make it clear until the economy is at full employment and inflation is at least at target, if not above.” Zandi said Powell may discuss yield curve controls, which would mean the Fed would set targets for interest rate levels in the Treasury market, and make purchases to influence rates. Some economists believe the Fed will adopt that tool before the end of the year. “I think he’s going to more clearly define the amount of QE they’re doing going forward. He’ll try to preserve some optionality, but he’ll try to make it known, they’re buying a lot of bonds for a long time to come,” Zandi said. But the hearings could be more politicized, and Powell may be criticized by Congress for helping financial markets more than Main Street, said John Briggs, head of strategy at NatWest Markets. “I’d be surprised if there’s a lot new, given it comes on the heels of the FOMC meeting,” Briggs said.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
“Stocks take an escalator up, but an elevator down.” — Old investment axiom The saying above sure happened yesterday. In the end, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.9% for the worst day since March 16 and the first three-day losing streak in more than three months. What does it mean? We’ve been on record that we expect some type of well-deserved pullback or at least consolidation after the 45% bounce off of the March 23 lows and the best 50-day rally ever. Then add in the fact that June has been the worst month of the year for stocks since 2000 and some type of weakness is perfectly logical here and now. “In many ways, this is one of the most overbought stock markets we’ve ever seen. Now the catch to this is previous times we’ve seen major levels similar to now have been closer to the beginning of bull markets than the end of bull markets,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. This is now one of the greatest surges off a major low ever. It is perfectly normal to see a drawdown of double digits after the initial surge weakens. This could be happening now.
Also, when more than 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 50-day moving average, this shows solid longer-term results. Again, suggesting that very overbought isn’t always a bad thing.
There was a huge spike in stocks marking new monthly highs, again historically an overbought signal. This opens the door for some near-term weakness, but is a very positive sign longer-term.
Last, in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was recently more than 13% above the 50-day moving average, one of the highest levels ever. The good news is one-year later stocks were higher every single time. Yet another clue that historically overbought isn’t always a bad thing for the bulls.
A record run, over-the-top excitement from small traders, the Nasdaq at 10,000, historically high multiples, and seasonality all could be a factor in why a pullback here could be perfectly normal. In fact, if you are bullish, after a 45% rally, one of the best things would be for prices to reset some here over the coming months. We would be a buyer of weakness and use it as an opportunity for longer-term price appreciation.
Persistent Volatility Runs Into Resistance & Exuberant Sentiment
We have all been gobsmacked by velocity and strength of this V-shaped rally off the March 23 bear market low. For the record this rally became an official Ned Davis Research defined bull market on May 26 when DJIA was up 30% from the low when it made a new recovery high after 50 calendar days (see NDR definitions below). And this was on the back of the shortest bear market on record, which lasted only 40 days. Today’s market comeuppance is an important reminder that we need to be patient with this market and heed our cautious analysis and stance. This is still the “Worst Six Months” and as we warned in the May Outlook when the market is down during the “Best Six Months” (November-April) as they were in 2020, the “Worst Six Months” (May-October) were down or flat 86% of the time with a median S&P decline of -6.7% since 1950. Other seasonal indicators are also flashing the caution sign. This year’s negative January Barometer and breached December DJIA low, point to possible retests of the lows and choppy, volatile trading over the next several months. See the updated composite graph of the seasonal pattern for these 22 years since 1950 in the June Outlook. It appears that quite a fair amount of hope was built into the rally. Lots of hope that everything is just going back to the way it was real soon. But COVID cases are on the climb again and folks are concerned that a pause and/or reverse of reopening could delay the economic recovery and derail the bull. Up until the past few days it felt like mid-February again with the market ignoring economic and corporate data as momentum pushed everything higher. The jobs report was a bit unbelievable and then Fed Chairman Powell’s candor and reserved outlook at yesterday’s press conference put the fear right back into the market today. Meanwhile the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently estimates that 2020 Q2 GDP growth will be down -48.5%. Sentiment had also become rather exuberant as the Weekly CBOE Equity Only Put/Call ratio we track in the “Pulse of the Market” hit 0.43 last week – its lowest level since the week ending 4/10/2010 about three weeks before the infamous flash crash. Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors are now up to 56.9%. Correction advisors are down to 22.5% while Bearish advisors have slipped further to 20.6%, putting us at caution levels. Technically, things deteriorated rapidly today. After blasting through several levels of resistance we have been tracking as shown in the chart here S&P 500 stalled at 3210 and plunged 5.9% today through 3115 support/resistance and closed just below 3010 support/resistance which sits at the 2019 summer highs. The next major support level below here is 2725 right near where the 50-day moving average turned up in mid-May, which would be a 15.7% correction from the recent recovery high reached this past Monday, June 8.
Ned Davis Research bull and bear market definitions: A cyclical bull market requires a 30% rise in the DJIA after 50 calendar days or a 13% rise after 155 calendar days. Reversals of 30% in the Value Line Geometric Index since 1965 also qualify. A cyclical bear market requires a 30% drop in the DJIA after 50 calendar days or a 13% decline after 145 calendar days. Reversals in the Value Line Geometric Index also qualify. Bull and bear markets are measured at peak and trough dates, so both the time and price criteria must be met as of the peak and trough dates.
More Volatility Likely During June Options Expiration Week and Beyond
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, DJIA has been up ten of the last seventeen years. Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 26 of the last 30 years with an average decline of 1.07%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared slightly better during the week after over the same 30-year span, declining 0.72% and 0.23% respectively on average.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Kroger Co. $32.26
**Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.88 per share on revenue of $40.12 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 22.22% with revenue increasing by 7.70%. Short interest has increased by 55.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $28.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,009 contracts of the $36.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.
**MFA Financial Inc (MFA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 122.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 67.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 55.0% below its 200 day moving average of $5.80. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 9,992 contracts of the $4.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. The stock has averaged a 1.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.
**Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.92 per share on revenue of $400.24 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.85) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 35% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3,940.00% with revenue decreasing by 30.80%. Short interest has decreased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1,026.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 47.9% below its 200 day moving average of $41.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,979 contracts of the $1.50 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings.
**JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, June 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $1.00 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 400.00% with revenue increasing by 15.27%. Short interest has decreased by 4.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.6% below its 200 day moving average of $19.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,793 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 15.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.7% move in recent quarters.
**Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $10.85 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.20 to $1.28 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.86% with revenue decreasing by 2.57%. Short interest has decreased by 12.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.2% below its 200 day moving average of $53.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 25,106 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters.
**Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.29 per share on revenue of $5.73 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.77% with revenue increasing by 3.00%. Short interest has decreased by 0.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 97.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $56.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,571 contracts of the $65.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters.
**CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Friday, June 19, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $2.39 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 27% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 105.03% with revenue decreasing by 55.46%. Short interest has increased by 0.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 83.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $85.05. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $92.50 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
**Townsquare Media, Inc. (TSQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Monday, June 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $95.77 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.11% with revenue increasing by 2.23%. On Monday, June 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 624 contracts of the $7.50 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020.
**H&R Block Inc. (HRB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.01 per share on revenue of $1.73 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.23 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 37% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.32% with revenue decreasing by 25.83%. Short interest has decreased by 31.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.3% below its 200 day moving average of $21.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 29, 2020 there was some notable buying of 11,609 contracts of the $17.00 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.5% move in recent quarters.
**Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, June 15, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 22.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 18.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.1% below its 200 day moving average of $17.10. Option traders are pricing in a 16.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 15th, 2020
Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 15th, 2020.
After big sell-off, stock market will be wary of virus and Fed testimony in week ahead - (Source)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reassure markets next week the central bank will do whatever it takes to help the economy heal. That should be enough to keep investors moving into stocks that benefit from an economic rebound and push the S&P 500 into the green for 2020. Stocks could be caught in a tug-of-war in the week ahead, as investors weigh the potential positives of a reopening economy against worry that the coronavirus continues to spread. In the past week, the S&P 500′s sharp gains briefly drove the index into positive territory for the year, before a bruising sell-off at the end of the week. Stocks were more than 47% above the March 23 low before investors got spooked by signs the coronavirus is picking up in some areas. The Fed also dampened sentiment when it released economic forecasts Wednesday that showed a slow recovery and interest rates at zero through the end of 2022. Investors will hear more of the same when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks before Congress this Tuesday and Wednesday in his semi-annual economic testimony. He may provide more clarity on the Fed’s bond buying and other policy moves. Retail sales for May are released Tuesday, and that will be an important look at consumer spending activity. It is the most important data in the coming week, other than the weekly jobless claims report on Thursday. Stocks rose on Friday with the S&P 500 up more than 1% after Thursday’s sharp sell-off that sent the index down nearly 6%. Treasury yields, which move opposite price, also moved sharply lower as investors moved to the safety of bonds. The 10-year yield was back to 0.70%, well off the high of 0.95% in the week earlier. “We’ve been overbought for awhile and digesting gains would be natural,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Stovall said the fact that 97% of the S&P 500 companies’ stocks were above their 50-day moving average this past week was a warning. The 50-day moving average is a momentum indicator, and if a stock or index rises above it, it is usually a positive, but if they all do, it’s a contrarian warning. “Historically that’s just too high ... and also the P/E on the S&P was 25.1 of forward 12-months earnings, which is a 52% premium to the P/E average since 2000,” he said. The P/E, or the price-to-earnings ratio, is an important tool to value stocks, and it averages around 16.5 times. In the sell-off, stocks that would benefit from the economy’s reopening were the hardest hit. Investors had been jumping into those names, driving them higher at a dizzying pace. They were also the sectors that were last to join the rally, like banks, casinos, airlines and hotels. “Once the pullback runs its course I think investors will move back again into the sectors and subsectors that were most beaten up in the bear market,” said Stovall. Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com, said he lightened up his holdings earlier in the week. “There were some clues early in the week that the market was vulnerable, like when the S&P closed below 3,191 on Tuesday. You had some feverish trading in some of the very speculative names,” he said. Stovall said other headwinds hang over the market, and one big one is the upcoming presidential election, which could become a bigger influence on the market. RealClearPolitics has President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph Biden by 8.1 points in the latest average of polls. “Trump’s numbers are just looking so bad, and if the Fed needs to keep interest rates at zero and we have the potential for a resurgence in Covid cases, then Trump is not going to benefit from an economic recovery, and as a result, that gives Biden a better chance of being elected,” said Stovall. “It’s not necessarily that the market dislikes Biden, but they dislike uncertainty. And a decline in equity prices would be representative of that uncertainty.”
Consumer barometer
Retail sales are typically a barometer for consumer spending, and when Americans were shut in their homes they did much less shopping than usual. April data showed a 16.7% drop in sales, but consumers did spend online. Economists are watching Tuesday’s report on May sales closely, particularly after the May jobs report had a large upside surprise. There were 2.5 million jobs added in May, instead of an expected loss of 8.3 million. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said business-to-business spending data for May implies that retail sales were flat compared with April’s depressed level and could be down 22% from a year ago. Zandi used data from Cortera, which collects information on about $1.5 trillion in business-to-business spending. In an analysis of spending by retailers in May, it found there were gains from April in some categories, including furniture, gasoline stations and restaurants. “Clothing and sporting goods store sales have been crushed, and that continued in May. Restaurants, gasoline stations and furniture stores have been hit hard, but showed strong improvement in May. Food and health and personal care stores have done well through the crisis, but gave some of that back in May,” notes Zandi. “Online retailers, general merchandise stores (which includes WalMart and Target), and building material and garden supply stores (Home Depot and Lowes) have navigated the crisis well, and May was another solid month.” Zandi said weakness in apparel and sporting goods washed out the gains in other areas.
Fed ahead
Strategists said Powell did not surprise the market with his comments this past week, but his sober approach reminded investors that the Fed policy will have to be in place for a very long time to pull the economy out of its deep rut. That will keep markets on high alert during his two days of testimony. “I think the cat’s out of the bag. I don’t think he can sugarcoat it. The thing he’s got to worry about is he needs help. He needs Congress and the administration to come up with another fiscal rescue package. He can’t do it on his own,” said Zandi. “He has to keep the pressure on them and get a piece of legislation before they go on August recess. ... He’s speaking as much to the American people as he is to the policy makers.” Zandi said the Fed has acted aggressively and swiftly to unfreeze credit markets when they locked up in March, but the economy needs more stimulus ahead of a wave of potential business defaults and with a high level of unemployment. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and on Wednesday the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities. “I think he continues to lay the foundation for policy changes to come,” said Zandi. “He’s strongly suggesting there’s going to be more monetary support, and that would come in the form of a few things - it would be performance dependent forward guidance. ... He’s going to make it clear until the economy is at full employment and inflation is at least at target, if not above.” Zandi said Powell may discuss yield curve controls, which would mean the Fed would set targets for interest rate levels in the Treasury market, and make purchases to influence rates. Some economists believe the Fed will adopt that tool before the end of the year. “I think he’s going to more clearly define the amount of QE they’re doing going forward. He’ll try to preserve some optionality, but he’ll try to make it known, they’re buying a lot of bonds for a long time to come,” Zandi said. But the hearings could be more politicized, and Powell may be criticized by Congress for helping financial markets more than Main Street, said John Briggs, head of strategy at NatWest Markets. “I’d be surprised if there’s a lot new, given it comes on the heels of the FOMC meeting,” Briggs said.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
“Stocks take an escalator up, but an elevator down.” — Old investment axiom The saying above sure happened yesterday. In the end, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.9% for the worst day since March 16 and the first three-day losing streak in more than three months. What does it mean? We’ve been on record that we expect some type of well-deserved pullback or at least consolidation after the 45% bounce off of the March 23 lows and the best 50-day rally ever. Then add in the fact that June has been the worst month of the year for stocks since 2000 and some type of weakness is perfectly logical here and now. “In many ways, this is one of the most overbought stock markets we’ve ever seen. Now the catch to this is previous times we’ve seen major levels similar to now have been closer to the beginning of bull markets than the end of bull markets,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. This is now one of the greatest surges off a major low ever. It is perfectly normal to see a drawdown of double digits after the initial surge weakens. This could be happening now.
Also, when more than 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 50-day moving average, this shows solid longer-term results. Again, suggesting that very overbought isn’t always a bad thing.
There was a huge spike in stocks marking new monthly highs, again historically an overbought signal. This opens the door for some near-term weakness, but is a very positive sign longer-term.
Last, in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was recently more than 13% above the 50-day moving average, one of the highest levels ever. The good news is one-year later stocks were higher every single time. Yet another clue that historically overbought isn’t always a bad thing for the bulls.
A record run, over-the-top excitement from small traders, the Nasdaq at 10,000, historically high multiples, and seasonality all could be a factor in why a pullback here could be perfectly normal. In fact, if you are bullish, after a 45% rally, one of the best things would be for prices to reset some here over the coming months. We would be a buyer of weakness and use it as an opportunity for longer-term price appreciation.
Persistent Volatility Runs Into Resistance & Exuberant Sentiment
We have all been gobsmacked by velocity and strength of this V-shaped rally off the March 23 bear market low. For the record this rally became an official Ned Davis Research defined bull market on May 26 when DJIA was up 30% from the low when it made a new recovery high after 50 calendar days (see NDR definitions below). And this was on the back of the shortest bear market on record, which lasted only 40 days. Today’s market comeuppance is an important reminder that we need to be patient with this market and heed our cautious analysis and stance. This is still the “Worst Six Months” and as we warned in the May Outlook when the market is down during the “Best Six Months” (November-April) as they were in 2020, the “Worst Six Months” (May-October) were down or flat 86% of the time with a median S&P decline of -6.7% since 1950. Other seasonal indicators are also flashing the caution sign. This year’s negative January Barometer and breached December DJIA low, point to possible retests of the lows and choppy, volatile trading over the next several months. See the updated composite graph of the seasonal pattern for these 22 years since 1950 in the June Outlook. It appears that quite a fair amount of hope was built into the rally. Lots of hope that everything is just going back to the way it was real soon. But COVID cases are on the climb again and folks are concerned that a pause and/or reverse of reopening could delay the economic recovery and derail the bull. Up until the past few days it felt like mid-February again with the market ignoring economic and corporate data as momentum pushed everything higher. The jobs report was a bit unbelievable and then Fed Chairman Powell’s candor and reserved outlook at yesterday’s press conference put the fear right back into the market today. Meanwhile the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently estimates that 2020 Q2 GDP growth will be down -48.5%. Sentiment had also become rather exuberant as the Weekly CBOE Equity Only Put/Call ratio we track in the “Pulse of the Market” hit 0.43 last week – its lowest level since the week ending 4/10/2010 about three weeks before the infamous flash crash. Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors are now up to 56.9%. Correction advisors are down to 22.5% while Bearish advisors have slipped further to 20.6%, putting us at caution levels. Technically, things deteriorated rapidly today. After blasting through several levels of resistance we have been tracking as shown in the chart here S&P 500 stalled at 3210 and plunged 5.9% today through 3115 support/resistance and closed just below 3010 support/resistance which sits at the 2019 summer highs. The next major support level below here is 2725 right near where the 50-day moving average turned up in mid-May, which would be a 15.7% correction from the recent recovery high reached this past Monday, June 8.
Ned Davis Research bull and bear market definitions: A cyclical bull market requires a 30% rise in the DJIA after 50 calendar days or a 13% rise after 155 calendar days. Reversals of 30% in the Value Line Geometric Index since 1965 also qualify. A cyclical bear market requires a 30% drop in the DJIA after 50 calendar days or a 13% decline after 145 calendar days. Reversals in the Value Line Geometric Index also qualify. Bull and bear markets are measured at peak and trough dates, so both the time and price criteria must be met as of the peak and trough dates.
More Volatility Likely During June Options Expiration Week and Beyond
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, DJIA has been up ten of the last seventeen years. Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 26 of the last 30 years with an average decline of 1.07%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared slightly better during the week after over the same 30-year span, declining 0.72% and 0.23% respectively on average.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Kroger Co. $32.26
**Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.88 per share on revenue of $40.12 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 22.22% with revenue increasing by 7.70%. Short interest has increased by 55.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $28.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,009 contracts of the $36.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.
**MFA Financial Inc (MFA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 122.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 67.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 55.0% below its 200 day moving average of $5.80. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 9,992 contracts of the $4.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. The stock has averaged a 1.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.
**Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.92 per share on revenue of $400.24 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.85) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 35% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3,940.00% with revenue decreasing by 30.80%. Short interest has decreased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1,026.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 47.9% below its 200 day moving average of $41.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,979 contracts of the $1.50 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings.
**JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, June 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $1.00 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 400.00% with revenue increasing by 15.27%. Short interest has decreased by 4.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.6% below its 200 day moving average of $19.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,793 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 15.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.7% move in recent quarters.
**Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $10.85 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.20 to $1.28 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.86% with revenue decreasing by 2.57%. Short interest has decreased by 12.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.2% below its 200 day moving average of $53.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 25,106 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters.
**Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.29 per share on revenue of $5.73 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.77% with revenue increasing by 3.00%. Short interest has decreased by 0.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 97.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $56.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,571 contracts of the $65.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters.
**CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Friday, June 19, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $2.39 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 27% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 105.03% with revenue decreasing by 55.46%. Short interest has increased by 0.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 83.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $85.05. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $92.50 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
**Townsquare Media, Inc. (TSQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Monday, June 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $95.77 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.11% with revenue increasing by 2.23%. On Monday, June 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 624 contracts of the $7.50 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020.
**H&R Block Inc. (HRB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, June 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.01 per share on revenue of $1.73 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.23 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 37% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.32% with revenue decreasing by 25.83%. Short interest has decreased by 31.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.3% below its 200 day moving average of $21.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 29, 2020 there was some notable buying of 11,609 contracts of the $17.00 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.5% move in recent quarters.
**Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, June 15, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 22.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 18.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.1% below its 200 day moving average of $17.10. Option traders are pricing in a 16.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.
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