Background

The NFL is the professional organization for gridiron football in the United States, and one of the largest sporting organizations on the planet. Boasting a yearly revenue of over $16 billion... you know, lets pause and put that in perspective. Video games - the entire idea of electronic games you play, whether on your phone, computer, or dedicated console - have a yearly revenue of $44 billion. That means the NFL makes about 40% of what video games - the entire fucking industry - does worldwide.
It is also deliciously petty. 31 of the 32 teams are owned by rich individuals who did not make their money through football. That means they're essentially owned by super rich fans who are not used to anyone telling them no. These owner superfans can fire people, demand trades, etc. And do. Imagine if you picked your industry, and had it run by a bunch of outsiders who knew very little about it, but had vast amounts of money and bad tempers. Oh and unlike European football with relegations, there's nothing to remove a team or force them to be competitive, meaning people making bad decisions can just keep making the bad decisions.
The result is you could probably make a subreddit just called "Gridiron football drama" and it'd be populated as fuck. Therefore I won't go into the minor things - the players who robbed a bunch of people but then bribed their way out of charges, the dogfighting, the guy who shot himself in the leg, that's just standard petty shit. Coaches fired after good seasons because the owner doesn't like them, total idiots left on for years, good ol' boys who never seem to quite depart the NFL despite no one having an idea what they're good at, the ongoing disaster of analytics (the idea of applying mathematics to a sport run by overgrown infants), no, no, that's for another time.
A good time. I'll probably do one or two more of these.

COVID and the League

The NFL makes $16 billion. COVID kills people. $16 billion vs. dead people. Hmmm. Dead people. $16 billion.
So we're having a football season this year. It's almost guaranteed to kill at least some people who are either involved or involved in outbreaks caused by it, but hey, life goes on. Or doesn't.
The NFL pays lip service to preventing the spread, which is the start of our delicious drama.

COVID Protocols - the answer

The NFL has instituted COVID protocols. These are insane. For instance, people on the sidelines have to wear a mask. Athletes don't, because you can't breath through a mask while pushing your body to its limits. They explored face shields, but nah.
So you have two guys who are literally laying next to each other on the ground panting for breath after tackling (this sport isn't at all gay). They are breathing heavily, inches from each other. But say those exact same players who have been breathing in each other's faces for hours celebrate winning in the locker room? That sounds like half a million in fines. Pay up!
There's no real describing how insane this is. The raiders coach doesn't like his mask so he's declared war on the NFL. The Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Raiders, and more have been fined.
The masks have also looked sillier and sillier. This man is considered a football genius. No, he hasn't taken one too many shots to the head or something, he's just incapable of wearing a mask normally. God knows why. Coaches regularly pull them down to talk to people, thus defeating the entire point, etc. See? He wears a mask when he doesn't need to be close to people or talk to them he only pulls it down for short periods of time when he's close and talking. I don't see the problem here.
Half the organizations fined are appealing, and accusations of bias have flown back and forth. Angriest are the Saints, who are PISSED about being fined half a million dollars for having a celebration in their own locker room after a win after they passed a COVID test right before the game.
Does any of this make sense? Nope!
There's some more sensible protocols too. For instance new players have to test negative, then sit out in isolation for six days while the teams wait for them to make sure they don't have COVID, test negative again, then they can join the team. Of course isolation isn't that isolating, but that's a whole other matter. So overall, mixed bag for protocols.

Fake fan noise

Okay, so most games can't be attended by fans (not Dallas, Dallas said fuck it get sick and die) but crowd noise is a big part of football. Crowds cheer their team. So they pipe in fake crowd noise.
This is a little creepy but not too bad. So where's the drama? Well, lets turn to Philadelphia, the city of brotherly love. Their QB, Carson Wentz, has been having a bit of a down year. So to show him love, they piped in fake boos. At a home game. This is kinda how Philly fans roll, but needless to say this move drew some controversy.

Baltimore Ravens COVID

The Baltimore Ravens were supposed to play a game on Thanksgiving, but their QB might have COVID. Fortunately the NFL was understanding. A QB is the most important position on the field, and without Lamar Jackson, there's no way the Ravens could be expected to play. So the game has been delayed as they work the situation out. So far, so good.

Denver Broncos

Okay, so that brings us to the Denver Broncos. See, anyone who has COVID has to be quarantined, as does anyone who might have it. Even if they test negative for a long while.
So the Denver Broncos backup QB has COVID. And they had a long meeting with their QB and their other backup QB. And their other backup. In a room with no masks. They're all put on COVID watch list, meaning they can't play.
So the Denver broncos have four quarterbacks, and none can play. The Ravens have just had a game delayed. The Broncos get told... game on.
Okay, they look around for QBs they can get on short notice. But remember in the protocol section where they have to have new players wait six days? Oh. They don't have six days.
In desperation they ask the NFL if they can at least play their assistant coach. He can throw footballs, and knows the playbook. Nope! Not signed as a player, has to sit for six days. "But he's been practicing with the team!" the Broncos tell the NFL. The NFL decides to beat the dead horse some more, and denies them.
Thus the Denver Broncos try to figure out who on their team can throw a football. The answer was their practice squad wide receiver Kendell Hinton. Here's him throwing passes in training camp.
Uh yeah, he catches passes. Not throws them. And has never played a game. And last threw a pass in a game in 2016, in college. And works as a salesman part time.
Is this a total middle finger to the NFL from the Broncos, or just the only person they had? I don't know, but it's ugly.

The game.

So the Kendall Hinton completed 1 of 9 passes. These are the highlights. 1 for 9, 13 yards, 2 interceptions. The Broncos got drubbed by the Saints, obviously, although NO was pretty gentle with Hinton overall. There's a lot of "welcome to the NFL" defense strategies you can use against a new QB like blitz zero - basically an all-out blitz - that will generally crush them until they get used to it. NO kindly used none of that, playing pretty standard.
Of course Hinton couldn't beat pretty standard, because Hinton is a receiver who isn't good enough to make the main squad. It's not all bad for him. The Denver Broncos gave him a shoutout on their Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Broncos/status/1333195716831838208
They reportedly gave him an ovation in the locker room, and gave him a the game ball. Multiple players have said they respect him, and they should. They weren't throwing the ball, and they probably would have looked just as bad. Gridiron football positions are not interchangeable, and QB is the hardest to step in to.
Fortunately Hinton seemed happy postgame interview, but damn.

Fallout

Broncos fans are furious the Ravens sat while their team was forced to play. Even ESPN has called this game "unprecedented in the modern era of football." There's a bunch of wagon circling back and forth.
Mike Klis a team reporter who covers them has reported that the Broncos other QBs tested negative before and after the game, meaning they could have played. Had they delayed the game they CERTAINLY could have played. So why did the NFL punish the Broncos and not the Ravens? Why show one team favoritism and guarantee the other a loss?
A big controversy is the NFL seems to be pushing "name brand" QBs. Lamar Jackson, QB of the Ravens, is one of those name QBs, and the NFL is pushing him hard as one of the faces of their game. Drew Lock, the Broncos QB, is not.
So this is adding fuel to that fire. Fans are convinced that people like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Lamar Jackson are getting more protection from the NFL - refs are calling fouls if anyone touches them, they're rearranging schedules to highlight them, etc. These people most certainly increase NFL revenue, and the NFL pushes them hard.
On the other side, many outfits are talking how the Broncos broke the rules, and how the punishment was not unwarranted. Are these connected to the NFL? Maybe. Sports media is a bit incestuous. They can't just go report on some other organization if the NFL bans them or does mean things to them.
So this has drawn battle lines, and lead to a grand controversy that's still developing.
Was this interesting? Anyone interested in a writeup of the collapse of the Chicago Bears in 2020, the Antonio Brown saga (in three part harmony), or the 60 year history of mismanagement and ineptitude that is the Detroit Lions? Do you like reading about Gridiron football?

Best Free DFS Lineup Optimizer

[Q] Surface-Level Attempt at Modeling Sports Gambling

Top 10 quarterbacks in the upcoming draft

Week	Bets Placed	Winning Bets
1	12	6
2	15	10
3	11	6
4	13	7
5	11	8
6	11	3
7	10	4
8	12	5
9	11	8

Week	Possible Parlays	Winning Parlays
1	220	20
2	455	120
3	165	20
4	286	35
5	165	56
6	165	1
7	120	4
8	220	10
9	165	56

We heave reached my positional breakdown for the 2020 NFL Draft - the much-discussed quarterback class. I don't see this group of four at the top everybody is talking about - to me there are two top ten prospects at the position, two guys I have a second-round grade on and then four more QBs, who I would even consider on day two.

1. Joe Burrow, LSU

This guy’s intelligence to determine defensive looks pre-snap and the accuracy to carve those up is outstanding. He quickly processes information and gets the ball out of his hands. Burrow has a tremendous ability of throwing his receivers open with ball-placement, even against some really tight coverage, putting the ball to the back-shoulder or away from the leverage of defenders. He just finds open space and trusts his receivers to get there. He is at his best on those rainbow balls over the top of the defense, that always seem to drop right into the hands of his streaking receivers. Burrow also doesn’t mind checking it down to his back when the mental clock runs out instead of forcing the ball into a window that simply isn’t there. In the National Championship game versus Clemson it was the first time all year that he looked a like shook at the start, but once that explosive offense started rolling, not even one of the best defenses in the country could slow them down. As good as he is on schedule, what really makes Burrow special is the way he can make things happen when plays break down.
Burrow has some of the best pocket presence I have seen from any quarterback I have ever scouted. You see him shuffle, hitch up and fade when necessary, while keeping two hands on the ball at all times. He has a great feel for when he has to retreat to buy himself that little bit of extra time to float the ball and he also spins out the backdoor quite a bit to escape that way. Burrow only fumbled four times last year on almost 600 drop-backs and despite taking some big hits in the open field. While he did break the all-time single-season record with 60 passing touchdowns last season, he also added five more on the ground. He is an extremely tough and weirdly elusive runner, who burned defenses routinely for crucial conversions. He also shows some deceptive speed to take a crease once he takes off and defenders seem to be surprised looking at their angles, averaging 8.6 yards per scramble. While he obviously was great at carving up defenses from the pocket, he made some incredible plays off script, scrambling towards the sideline and somehow still finding somebody for a nice gain. Burrow doesn’t seem to be afraid of anybody or anything. He is country-strong, shaking off tacklers and standing strong inside the pocket or taking off and got straight up after taking some huge shots at the sideline.
Among all draft-eligible quarterbacks in this class, Burrow is the only one whose passer rating actually went up when he was under pressure last season (-30.2 on average for the top 17). Burrow came through in all the big games for LSU last season. He hit Justin Jefferson for a huge game-clinching touchdown on third-and-17 in the Texas game. He made a bunch of plays off script in that huge showdown at Alabama to keep the chains moving and always found a way to answer when the Crimson Tide looked to pull even again. Even in the National Championship versus Clemson, when it took up until about the middle of the second quarter to understand what DC Brett Venables wanted to do to him, he still managed to throw five touchdowns and make the final result pretty convincing. And then he obviously put together one of the most incredible performances ever by any college quarterback, when he dismantled the Oklahoma defense in the Peach Bowl, scoring touchdowns through the first three quarters only.
With that being said, Burrow does not have the elite arm strength to drive passes from one hash to the opposite sideline as powerful as some other guys can. That lack of a laser also probably led to the game-deciding pick-six in the 2018 Florida game, where it allowed the DB to undercut an out-route. Burrow had great pocket integrity and as good a skill position group as anybody in the country for all of 2019. He also had the benefit of playing for one of the better group of offensive minds in Joe Brady and Steve Ensminger, where it was rather easy to decipher defenses with a lot of check-motions and pass-catchers being schemed free, while also having a receiver going in the first round in this and next year’s class, an outstanding running back in Clyde Edwards-Helaire and a super dependable tight-end in Thaddeus Moss. A good 1000 yards probably came on screens and quick slant routes to Justin Jefferson in the slot. Burrow only played one season close to this level and that hasn’t translated too well recently with other guys. I actually liked Burrow a lot more than most people as a junior because of the toughness and I know that the numbers won’t look great in a heavy run and play-action system, but you have to put his 2019 performance in perspective to some degree.
While Burrow might not have the biggest arm out there, his combination of athleticism, poise, toughness and accuracy make him a shoe-in for the first overall pick. He has those football bloodlines going way back and he always seemed to come through whenever his team really needed him. While you can certainly look at the supporting cast around him as major factors for his success, Burrow also was a big reason all those players around him are looked at the way they are and those coordinators have now received more coveted jobs.

2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Tua is a great distributor, who has the arm and poise in the pocket to get everybody involved, plus he has the mobility and creativity to create wins off schedule. He has shown the ability to diagnose defenses and stay calm in the pocket to go through his progression – something Jalen Hurts simply wasn’t able to do before. To me he is the most natural passer and has the quickest release in this draft class, displaying soft touch and throwing a very catchable ball, Tua’s eyes and feet are linked together tightly and you see him process information to work through progressions rapidly. Because of that he forces defenses to defend every single inch of grass on the field. Tua is pretty violent with how he pushes off that back-leg and emphatically works up inside the pocket to set up his throws. The ball really jumps out of his hand and he is very sudden with turns of the shoulder, as he works his way through his reads. He is very much like Drew Brees in those type of movements and the command he has over an offense, but he is more athletic than the Saints QB ever was.
This young man is lightning quick at setting his feet and getting the ball out. You see him let the ball go before receivers even get into their breaks a lot of times. RPOs with his quick, compact release were an absolute nightmare facing Alabama, while also displaying the kind of pin-point accuracy that allowed his receivers to not break stride and gain yards after the catch. He showcases great rhythm and timing to work the short and intermediate areas, while also throwing a beautiful deep ball, where he lets the ball drop right into the bucket – especially from the opposite hash. That Alabama offense could score at any moment because of that quick-strike ability and it was both a tool to quickly get back into games and to create separation to the opponent. Tua already carved up opposing defenses when they tried to blitz him during his two years as a starter for the Crimson Tide, averaging 10.9 yards per attempt and completing 65 percent of his passes in those situations. While the injuries are obviously a concern, you also have to applaud Tua’s toughness to stand in there when he has a free runner coming at him as well as playing banged up.
The Bama signal-caller is highly elusive inside the pocket and finds ways to get to ball to his guys even with defenders charging right at him. He has that quick twitch a lot of taller passers don’t, which not only lets him operate efficiently from the pocket, but also enables him to get rid of the ball on bootlegs, where he hasn’t even been able to square his shoulders yet. Tua avoids a lot of sacks and gets rid of the ball to take away those negative plays. When he works the scramble drill, his eyes are up at all times as he is moving sideways and puts the ball to a spot where one of his receivers can run underneath it. Tua is also pretty elusive as a runner and has some start-stop quickness to him. Until banging up his ankle in 2018 he was well on his way to win the Heisman and in 2019 he threw a total of 17 touchdowns through the first four games, despite barely playing in fourth quarters through any of them, before injuries started to somewhat derail his season. Still, he is now leaving Tuscaloosa as the school’s all-time leader in career passing touchdowns, the two highest marks in single-season passing touchdowns and recording passer ratings of 137.5 and 143.3 respectively.
However, Tua had four potential first-round receivers on his offense and he threw a bunch of passes behind the line of scrimmage on different screens or dump-offs off fly motions, where he just those guys make things happen with the ball in their hands, or hit somebody on a quick slant and that guy took it for 70-80 yards to make his stats look much better. He doesn’t nearly seem as comfortable firing the ball in some tight windows downfield and decides to pull it down instead, while his effectiveness takes a huge dip when coming off the first read and holding onto the ball. Tua misses some defenders in underneath coverages every once in a while and he is also kind of erratic movements in the pocket at times, while holding on to the ball too long, which not only gives defenders a chance the knock it out of his hands, but also puts his body at risk at time. With the way his receivers were open a lot of times when he expected them to be because of the way defenses usually reacted, Tua can be caught predetermining throws (pick-six vs. Clemson 2018) and it is kind of ironic that he entered the spotlight coming in as the savior for Bama in the 2017 national title game, considering he came up a little small in their rematch with Georgia in the following SEC Championship game and then Clemson the upcoming CFP. Tua is only 6’1” and looks a little small in the pocket – especially against interior pressure. He has this weird tendency of kind of running up into some throws.
To me it is less about the hip injury, but rather if Tua can stay healthy going forward. He’s not an all-world athlete and puts himself into positions were he is vulnerable, but as great as his SEC rival Joe Burrow was last season, the Alabama signal-caller has put together one of the greatest two-year stretches of any quarterback in college football history. His ability to work through progressions like a computer almost, throw the ball with tremendous accuracy and make the most of plays is special. There are some other concerns here and he had a lot of help around him, but assuming he is actually back to 100 percent and those nagging problems have had time to disappear, I think he is absolutely worth a top ten pick and he is clearly the number two quarterback in this draft.

3. Justin Herbert, Oregon

This guy is 6’6’’, 230+ pounds and probably has the most talented arm in the entire draft. Herbert doesn’t have to strain when letting the ball 50+ yards, almost like the flick of a wrist. You see him throw those impressive darts all over the field and he can put the type of velocity on the ball to drive it from one hash to the opposite sideline with ease, while also drilling some throws down the seams where no defender can get to the ball in time. He is also light on his feet, being able to move, reset and launch as well as quarterback in college football these last few years. Herbert doesn’t mind holding onto the ball and taking big hits to give receivers enough time to where he can put it the air late and allow them to separate. He didn’t receive much help from the skill-position players around him, as he saw his pass-catchers drop almost 30 passes in 2018 and last season 7.4 of his passes were dropped as well. Herbert ran a very simplistic offense at Oregon this past year, with a bunch of screens and then deep routes off faking those. The Ducks went from a no huddle, spread offense to a system more based around the rushing attack and play-action off it, where he gained experience actually turning his back to the defense and relocating his targets.
Herbert also has some shiftiness to escape the rush, while being a true threat to pull the ball on zone-read plays and burn you. He is a decisive runner when he chooses to take off and can slice through a lane quicker than a lot of defenses can adjust their angles accordingly. Towards the end of the 2019 season, Herbert really started making use of his athleticism and burned opposing defenses with his rushing ability on several occasions. He rushed for three touchdowns in the 2020 Rose Bowl versus Wisconsin, before closing the game out with a couple of big third-down passes. In addition to that, the Oregon signal-caller has the arm talent to make crazy throws on the run and point to spots for his receivers as he moves towards the sideline, letting the ball go over half the field a lot of times. He made a bunch of those plays versus Washington in a huge showdown as a junior. The Oregon QB ran a strong 4.68 at the combine and had a great passing showcase. He was right on target on deep in-breaking routes, threw three beautiful corner routes in a row and showed off his big arm on the go-ball.
Moreover, Herbert put together a very consistent Senior Bowl week. He clearly stood out among the quarterbacks and if not for Jordan Love putting together some good stretches himself, Herbert would have been heads and shoulders above the rest there. He wrapped things up by absolutely firing some piss missiles during the two-minutes drill on the final day and then was named the Offensive MVP in the actual game. When protected and in rhythm, we have seen what Herbert can do. In 2018 he completed 17 of his first 18 passes versus Stanford and I thought he learned to be more of a well-rounded passer than just a thrower last season. With that I mean not always putting a hundred miles per hour on the ball and driving it, but also using some touch and taking heat off it, when he checked it down late to one of his running backs. I also thought he become more efficient with his pocket movement, especially gaining ground as he hitches up.
On the flipside, Herbert has to do a better job anticipating throws and not waiting for receivers to actually come open, mostly locking in on his first read. At this point he is most comfortable rolling to either side and throwing the ball, rather than working through his progressions and adjusting to defenses post-snap. He lacks someone awareness of who’s coming on blitzes and doesn’t always put his second hand on the football to protect it, which resulted in 26 total fumbles in 43 career starts. As a pure thrower, his feet get stuck at times and he doesn’t have them pointed properly for the throws he goes on to attempt, while also not bringing his whole body into the throw and swinging his back-leg through routinely. That led to plenty of passes landing at the feet of his receiver or going over their head. His front-shoulder gets frozen too many times and he limits the torque he can build up, muscling some throws due to an elongated motion. Herbert is kind of stiff overall and his throwing motion is pretty mechanic. Because of that, he is not super accurate on short throws, as he finished 50th in the FBS in the 1-9 yard range in accuracy percentage according to PFF. Most problematic however, Herbert was only present physically in a lot of big games for the Ducks and did not show that spark necessary to take those contests over, while making some bad decisions and looking like a deer in the headlights.
Herbert’s lack of consistency with reading the field and being precise with his throws is definitely concerning, but his flashes of brilliance when it comes his athleticism and big-time throws is even more intriguing. 728 of his passing yards came on screen passes and he doesn’t work through his progressions particularly well yet, but with the way he ended the season and performed in Mobile, Herbert has likely secured a spot in the top ten of the draft. However, I have some major question marks about his game and his readiness to be a week one starter for whoever drafts him. So I would actually not look at him before the end of the first round.

4. Jordan Love, Utah State

I already believed before the 2019 college football season even started, that Love could be that surprise first-round quarterback this year. He is 6’4”, 225 pounds with an incredibly dynamic arm and overall skill-set. He uses his different arm angles and trajectories, really showing that flexibility and bendiness to change things up with how the ball comes out of his hands. He can not just drive the ball, but also put arc on it or use different speeds. Love shows some suddenness with the way he can snap his feet and turn his shoulder to go with a quick release. You see him give those little look-offs to open up quick throws underneath routinely. He has the velocity on the ball to complete out-routes without allowing trailing defenders to undercut the pass and he has the confidence in his ability to fire the ball into some tight windows over the middle. Even when his receivers were well-covered, Love put the ball into some spots where they had a chance to make a play routinely and when those guys did find a way to hold onto the pass, it ended in spectacular plays. Love can throw off his back-foot with a defender in his face and is not afraid of attacking the deep middle. When he was surrounded with bigger receivers, he put the ball up in the air for them and allowed them to make a play quite often.
Love has a way of escaping from defenders, by spinning off or making them miss, leading to just 23 sacks taken despite being pressured on 27.7 percent of his drop-backs last season. He has a special ability to make throws on the run, can fire the ball 50+ yards off the wrong foot like it’s nothing and you see him fire bullets off a dead-sprint to the left, where he somehow still finds a way to square his shoulders and give his receivers downfield a shot. However, even on bootlegs when he somebody wide open in flats off a sift block fake or on a shall crosser, he goes for the deep comeback instead and hits it in on the run routinely. Love scored seven rushing touchdowns in 2018, despite just recording 63 rushing yards. He is much more dynamic runner than his numbers would indicate, being able to give that little head-fake and the dip defenders for yardage right up the middle. Love also shows pretty good speed to the edge and toughness in traffic.
In 2019 his top three receivers were no longer there and Love didn’t have that explosive check-down option Darwin Thompson presented his sophomore campaign. The offense also wasn’t very creative and under the new coaching staff, they didn’t give Love much help, with plays repeating themselves a whole lot. Much of his bad play was about pressing and trying to do much, when there simply wasn’t much there. Of his 17 interceptions last season, two were tipped by defensive linemen, three came on hail mary attempts and on another three it seemed pretty obvious that receivers were running the wrong route. He impressed at the Senior Bowl with the way his ball cut through the wind while other QBs struggled with that. He also showed some good mobility inside the pocket and the ability to keep his eyes down the field and after a somewhat shaky first day, he put together two more excellent practices, really showing poise and control. Love also had an excellent athletic showing at the combine for a pretty big guy.
While you have to put it into perspective, you can’t overlook the fact Love took a big step back in 2019, going from six to 17 interceptions while completing two percent less of his passes for an average of 1.4 yards less per attempt. He tends to throw some short passes with his arm only, not bringing his lower body forward at all. He also needs to stop trying to lob balls into his guys instead of actually throwing it, at times putting his feet parallel to each other and just leaving the ball up for grabs on those rainbow type throws, with too much under it. While several of his interceptions actually weren’t his fault, there could have been plenty of others going the wrong way, as Love ranked 101st nationally with 26 turnover-worthy plays last season according to PFF. He tries to get the ball to receivers that look open at the moment he releases it, without noticing the pecillinary coverage. His completion percentage last season was highly inflated by the amount of screens he threw – 26.5 percent of his completions were behind the line of scrimmage – and he really struggled in Utah State’s two matchup versus Power 5 teams – LSU and Wake Forest (six INTs combined).
Love has those quick-twitch movement to adjust his platform and get the ball to where it needs to be in a hurry. While it is obviously crazy to make that comparison to Patrick Mahomes, since that guy is probably the most talented quarterback I have ever seen, Love has a lot of similar qualities, in terms of being a flexible athlete, who can change up his throwing angles and releases, as well as being a magician off script. However, at Utah State he also made some absolutely bone-headed decisions and was really pressing last season. His upside is very intriguing, but you need to surround him with the appropriate weapons and a creative offensive coordinators if you don’t want his backyard style of play to be the norm.

5. Jacob Eason, Washington

This young man has the size and arm the NFL is looking for, with the prototype measurements of 6’6”, right around 230 pounds, which most scouts were hell-bent to find just a few years ago. More importantly the arm strength is second to none in this class. Eason can put the ball in the air 50-60 yards without even breaking a sweet and he can fire lasers pretty much to any spot necessary. The ball comes out beautifully and the Washington QB spreads the it all around the field. He has no problem completing corner-routes to the close to the white lines on the field side without much arc to keep the safety from undercutting it in time. He loves to throw all those curl and hook routes, where he can put some zing on the ball. Eason can throw those deep post routes on a rope and make it look easy, but also places some fade balls perfectly on those lob passes and can put it over the top of the underneath defender for a crossing receiver to drift further downfield, showcasing the ability to take speed off the ball. He made a couple of throws in the Las Vegas Bowl against #19 Boise State that will absolutely make your jaw drop.
Eason has experience in a pro-style offense, where he was asked to turn his back to the defense off play-action and make big-throws down the field. He has the confidence to pull the trigger for some tight-window throws or let the ball go to a spot in-between defenders on dig or shallow post routes. When he is in rhythm and on his game, there is a lot to like here. Eason excels in the quick-game from the gun, where he has his drive-foot in front and as soon as it hits, he transitions back forward with some power behind the ball. He is also very accurate getting the ball out on hitch and hook routes and deeper drops, where he can really hit that back-foot and let it fly. At the same time, he has the arm talent to roll either way or run up into the throw for some incredible completions. He especially likes to escape through the back door, spinning to his left and then leading his receiver all the way towards the sideline. Eason didn’t get a ton of help from his wide receivers last season with a drop rate of 7.6 percent and he was pressured on 26.6 percent of his drop-backs.
Unfortunately, Eason locks his feet into the ground a little too much and doesn’t rotate through in a very dynamic fashion for the most part. You see him throw some balls on a line, which don’t give his receiver a adjust and make a play on it and while you like the confidence, there are some throws where one of the safeties can either make a play on the ball himself or just blast the intended receiver. Eason is a below-average athlete and will not contribute whatsoever as a runner, as he finished his career with -126 rushing yards overall. While some NFL GMs are probably different, there are some situations, where I would have liked to see the QB go head-first instead of sliding in order to convert on third downs. Eason completely panics under pressure and makes some terrible decisions in the process, where he fades away or throws it without any usage of the lower body. He crumbled and gave away some big games with bad judgement against Oregon and Utah, including a game-changing pick-six against the Utes throwing from his back-foot.
I really thought Eason should have returned to Washington for the 2020 season, because there are definitely some parts of his game that need help and I wanted to see him come through in the big games, instead of shrinking in those moment. However, I believe he is more daring than reckless, even if that doesn’t mean there aren’t any issues in his judgement for situations and he needs to improve a whole when facing pressure. Still, the size and arm talent, combined with the fact he really only played two seasons make him a very intriguing option to shape into something special with an established starter allowing him to grow for a year.

6. Jalen Hurts, Alabama

Built robust at 6’2”, 220 pounds, Hurts has come a long, long way as a passer from when he first took over the Alabama offense as a freshman. His ability to throw the ball from within the pocket with accuracy and rhythm looked much better in spot-duty as the backup behind Tua in 2018 and he became a completely different guy under Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, where he established himself as one of the favorites for the Heisman trophy only a few weeks into the year. I also believe his throwing motion has become much more fluid throughout this offseason, leading up to an excellent passing session at the combine. However, there was never any question about the power behind his arm, which was apparent ever since he threw that 70-yard touchdown on a deep ball when Bama dismantled USC in the 2016 season-opener – his first ever collegiate game. You see those tight spirals on downfield throws, where the nose of the ball is aimed towards the ground. Last season over 1200 yards of his total came on balls travelling 20+ yards down the field. He has the ability to be pretty accurate off-platform as well.
As prolific as he was as a passer for most of the year, Hurts really took over as a runner in the latter parts of that campaign, carrying the ball 106 times over a five-game stretch leading up to the CFP. Not only has he been very effective in the option run game, but he has made some huge plays taking off when a crease opened up. He displays some slick pump fakes when he has an option in the flats off zone-reads and gets some guys to not even lay a hand on him at times Hurts has great shake and head-fakes as a runner, but while some people may think of him as this Lamar Jackson-style runner, he actually has more of a running back mentality with the weightlifting background to back it up with power. He ran over several defensive backs throughout his career and has gained plenty of yardage through contact, displaying a lot of toughness. At the same time he has the speed to slice through defense. That strength also shows when he breaks free from potential sacks and puts the ball out in front for one of his receivers to run underneath off the scramble drill or lead them back towards himself. More importantly however, Hurts has that gamer mentality you want to see from a quarterback. Yes, he was benched in the 2017 national title game because the passing attack for the Tide was pretty stagnant, but when you think of the way he redeemed himself when he jumped into the action versus Georgia the following season or that 28-3 comeback over Baylor the first time around last year, he has stepped up and willed his team to victories
While gets the ball towards the target most of the time, Hurts has not mastered the ability to use the appropriate type of passes – straight-line, lob, touch, etc. The Oklahoma QB tends to not get the front-shoulder pointed towards his target and limits the torque he can build up on his throws, especially when getting the ball out quickly. While he has made huge strides as a pocket-passer, he is still too quick to take off and leaves opportunities on the table. He has definitely improved from his days of being completely flat-footed as he looked downfield, but he still has kind of lazy feet and runs himself into some pressures. He also makes some dumb decision, when he is all the way out at the sideline and tries to throw back across the field and he fumbled eight times last year, dropping the ball below his belt on too many occasions. Overall, his production at Oklahoma was largely due to Lincoln Riley’s quarterback-friendly system, that had produced consecutive Heisman trophy winners the two previous years. There were a bunch of wide-open receivers off mesh concepts and rub routes, plus having an all-world receiver like Ceedee Lamb making you look good with his ability to make magic after the catch helps your numbers a whole lot as well. The second-lowest drop rate in the FBS (1.8 percent) doesn’t hurt either. He needs to see receivers be open for the most part, instead of anticipating throws and a lot of his issues came in a catastrophic Peach Bowl versus LSU, which Big 12 defenses couldn’t expose.
There are a lot of things to like about hurts – his competitiveness, arm strength and mobility standing out the most. However, to me he is more of a developmental prospect with work to be done in terms of getting his body in position to make the most of his throws. I want more subtle movement inside the pocket and him being more effective with his decision-making. I love what I have seen from Hurts in terms of overhauling his throwing motion and the development he has made overall ever since he lost his job to Tua at Alabama, but he is still growing as a passer. To me he is Tyrod Taylor plus – which he can certainly be a top-20 starter in the right system.

7. Jake Fromm, Georgia

The first thing that stands out to me about Fromm’s tape is the fact he has very clean footwork overall – in the quick game, five- and seven-step drops as well as re-setting off play-action. He is at his best in rhythm, letting the ball go right as that last step hits and completing curl or hook routes, but he also wins on those teardrop and back-shoulder throws along the sidelines. At Georgia, he was outstanding at lofting the ball over the top on fade routes and putting it to where only his receiver can put hands on it. Fromm excels at throwing his receivers open on back-shoulder throws, as corners try to stack those guys and don’t allow them to separate originally. In the underneath areas he actually protects his targets from defenders by placing the ball away from those guy. While it is just a small detail, the Georgia QB puts the ball to the outside shoulder on flat routes and outlets every single time, to where his guy can immediately turn upfield. He really understands how to distribute the ball to his arsenal of pass-catchers and spreads the ball around between them, while manipulating defenses with very subtle shoulder- and ball-fakes.
Throughout his three years as a starter with the Bulldogs, Fromm did a great job protecting the ball as part of a team that relied on a heavy running game and stingy defense. Their QB had only 28 turnover-worthy plays in his entire career and had only four fumbles recovered by the opposing team. While he wasn’t asked to fling the ball all over the yard, Fromm has plenty of experience from under center and running pro-style concepts, which can’t be said about many college signal-callers with all those spread offenses. When he was relied upon in certain situations, he did come through for UGA ever since his freshman campaign, stepping up in SEC Championship games. Fromm stands strong in that pocket and keeps his eyes downfield, but he also defeated the blitz a whole lot by releasing the ball extra early to a spot or putting a ton of air under the ball and giving his receivers an opportunity to make a play on it. I also think he is more dangerous when he takes off than you would expect and he is a tough runner when he needs to pick up a first down.
However, Fromm is routinely a tick late with releasing the ball, which does not help considering his arm-talent is average at best. You don’t see too many big opposite-sideline throws or drive passes in the intermediate to deep range. When he wants to really push the ball downfield, he needs this wind-up to enable himself to do that. Fromm struggles to hook up with his flankers on short out-routes consistently, giving defenders a chance to undercut the pass. That’s a big reason four of his five interceptions last season came in short range (0-9 yards) and 25.4 percent of his passes last season were uncatchable. Fromm is way too quick to check it down and he didn’t even allow some patterns to develop before finding Swift & company underneath. Last year he only averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. Fromm has to do a better job feeling pressure off the edge and moving up into the pocket, having his weight shifted backwards too much for my taste. He also has a bad habit of flipping the ball and is kind of a statue in the pocket. His arm also looked pretty weak there and he could not make some of impressive throws other guys in Indy intrigued scouts with. Fromm only dropped back 35+ times in seven career games – most quarterbacks from pass-heavy systems have more than that in a single season.
Fromm is a solid, but not very exciting quarterback prospect. If put in the right system, I think he can be a productive starter right off the bat, but if you ask him to make big-time throws all over the field and be the focus of the offense, you will be disappointed. At below nine-inch hands and lacking arm talent, the upside simply isn’t there quite like it is for some other guys, but he has been an excellent starter in college football’s toughest conference and not shied away from competing against the best, actually stepping up his game. At worst he should be one of the best backups in the league, who keeps a cool head and shows a lot of toughness when thrown in a game.

8. Anthony Gordon, Washington State

This 6’2”, 205-pound signal-caller took more drop-backs (740) than any other quarterback in the country last season. Gordon displays bouncy feet inside the pocket and is rapid with setting them to release the ball, while being able to shorten his motion when the ball needs to come out. He is very patient at working through his progressions and allowing patterns to develop. Gordon was at his best over the middle on the intermediate level, layering the ball between linebackers and safeties on dig or shallow post routes, to where his receiver doesn’t have to break stride at all, setting up a lot of yards after the catch. He also throws some beautiful tear-drop fade routes towards the opposite sideline. Gordon can utilize some side-arm action on hook or stick routes, as well as putting the ball to the outside of receivers as he moves that way. Overall he completed 220 of his 264 attempts on passes in the zero to nine yard range. Unlike a lot of these guys coming from Air Raid systems, Gordon actually has the tools to succeed outside that kind of scheme and he probably has the most talented arm for a Wazzu QB in recent years.
Gordon also has somewhat underrated mobility and can pick up some crucial third downs, when the defense drops out and leaves a lane for him, but also to run up in the pocket and feather the ball over defenders. More importantly, he can buy time inside the pocket by sliding around and drifting backwards a little to set up some throws. He sees the entire field very well and won’t let opportunities for big plays slip away too much, with 115 completions on passes thrown for 10+ yards, to go with the precision in the underneath areas. I really like the way he can look off defenders and almost start his release before his eyes even move on to the actual target, especially in combination with guys sitting down their routes and creating more room for them that way. He was highly efficient all over the field, but in particular in the red-zone.
With that being said, Gordon needs to swing that back-leg through more instead of having it hit the turf and kind of whipping the ball. His feet aren’t quite in sync with his upper body at this point. He also has a bad tendency of padding the ball and taking that second hand off it, swinging it around quite a bit. It is maddening to watch the ball drop underneath his belt and then over his head time and time again. Gordon doesn’t drive some balls down the seam enough and allows defender to get back into the picture or exposes his receivers awaiting the pass. You see some ill-advised decisions when he is on the move and just kind of puts the ball up for grabs sometimes. His numbers were blown up in that Air Raid under Mike Leach, where a lot of throws were basically extended handoffs. He led all FBS quarterbacks with 738 yards on screen passes last season and his top two backs caught over 100 balls on swing and angle routes for the most part. At the Senior Bowl, Gordon struggled to cut through the wind for the most part and I would say he’s only slightly above that starter threshold in terms of arm strength.
While he is shockingly loose with the ball, Gordon “only” fumbled five times last year, which isn’t too bad a rate considering the insane amount of drop-backs. That number will be a lot higher in the NFL if he doesn’t change his ball-handling habits. A lot of his production at Wazzu was manufactured through the scheme and he only was a starter for one year, but there a lot of things to work with in terms of field awareness, pocket movement and ability to set up his receivers for run after catch opportunities. Gordon may not have a special arm, but he is a very natural passer and deserves a chance to compete for a starting job early on. While he isn’t nearly as big or has the kind of arm talent as Tom Brady does, he plays a little like the GOAT.

Numbers nine and ten as well as notable mentions in the comments!

If you enjoyed the content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/04/14/top-10-quarterbacks-in-the-2020-nfl-draft/

You can also listen to the video breakdown - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKEGX50IXQA

Examining the Differences In The College And NFL Overtime Systems And the “Fairness” of Each

Can we have an honest conversation about the differences in the NFL overtime and the college overtime? (I know we can’t, but can we try?)
Both the college and the NFL overtime system are currently under fire for recent events. For the NFL, the Patriots again took an overtime kickoff and scored, there is a fan uprising over the “unfairness” of it. For the NCAA, the governing body says it’s open to changes to prevent games from going into multiple overtime games like LSU and Texas A&M’s 7 overtime contest in November. If any changes will be made to either system is yet to be determined. However, the debate rages with the fans.
For several years now, people have debated over which system is better and which system is more “fair” (however we measure that). As I’ve a fan of the college overtime system since the early 80s, I have followed some of these debates with interest, often amazed at the misinformation spread in these debates and accepted without pause. As I’ve collected a large share of college football overtime information including details of over 2,600 college football overtime games, I have more than average knowledge on the subject.
Among the things I want to address myths regarding the advantage the coin toss has in the college system. There are myths at both extremes, with people believing that there is no advantage in college (“because both teams get the ball”) and the widely held belief that the college system favors the coin toss winner by a much large margin than the pro game. The winning percentage of coin toss winners in college and pro is very similar (53.89% for in college FBS games and 54.58% for the new NFL system) but you constantly see people take a stand that one system is much fairer than the other. Of course, “fair” to some people means both teams having the ball, which is a valid point of view, but we’ll get into that later.
Given that there have only been 120 NFL games using the new system, which started in 2010 for the playoffs and 2012 in the regular season, it seemed pretty simple to gather the information I needed to assess how each system compares to the other. I used the game finder queries at pro-football-reference.com along with their play-by-play logs. Before I get into the results, I want to address a few common things I’ve seen people say which I feel stifle debate, rather than enhance it.
A lot of the debates I’ve followed discussion gets bogged down in people engaging in hyperbole, “facts” seemingly out of the blue, and pointless observations. Before I get down to the facts in this case, I want to give examples of some of those.
Pointless Observations
Every time a tie happens in the NFL, someone opines that the NFL needs to change to the college overtime system. This comment is pointless, as the NFL system is equally capable of breaking a tie as the college system is, it’s just that the NFL limits the length of the overtime and calls it a tie at that point. It seems unlikely that the NFL is going to want to have 7+ overtime games like has happened in college so it would have to put a cap on that system as well and you’d still have ties. I don’t see the NFL completely changing the system to end up with the same problem. I’m not saying that the NFL wouldn’t benefit from going to the college system, but just saying they should change without giving what the benefits or drawbacks are is a pointless statement.
Hyperbole
Every time a major NFL games has the coin toss winner score on the first drive you see comments that run along the line of “the game was decided by a coin toss”. What does that even mean? If the coin toss decided the game, why even play the overtime, just toss the coin. Given that the coin toss loser has won nearly half the games, it clearly doesn’t decide the game. When people who throw this comment out bother to explain what they mean, they either actually believe that the toss winners win most games, or they are upset that the kicking team never got the ball. The first school of thought is nonsense, while the second is a valid point of view worth discussion. When people use the generic “decided by a coin toss” line, you don’t know if they are using a throwaway line or have a point worth exploring.
Facts From Nowhere
The final thing I want to address is the practice that some people have of just quoting some “facts” without giving the source or the context of it. While there are many examples of this, I will focus on this gem from Ross Tucker which, at last check, got over 5,100 retweets and over 6,800 likes. The tweet was as follows:
“Overtime coin toss winner winning % NFL: 52.7% CFB: 54.9% Please RT for the sake of humanity.”
The first observation I will make is that he made no point at all, which might have bailed him out from blowing both “facts”. If his point was that the NFL coin toss is not way out of line, precise numbers aren’t necessary. If his point was college is more out of line than the NFL, than he got that wrong because that’s not really the case. However, let’s focus on where the numbers came from.
I didn’t have to research were he got the 54.9%. This came from a study done 12 years ago by Peter A. Rosen and Rick L. Wilson titled “An Analysis of the Defense First Strategy in College Football Overtime Games”. While the study was not 100% accurate (no study of this scope ever is), it did an excellent job of breaking things down. I have two issues in using this information without giving the source, one minor and one major. The minor one is that they were not tracking the “coin toss winner”, as stated, but the team who went second. Though the two numbers are similar, I prefer people to be accurate in their statements. The major problem I have is that the study is 12 years old, which is certainly information that would seem relevant if you’re giving a “fact”. It’s as if we are to believe these numbers are static and never change, and while the current percentage is similar these numbers fluctuate over time, as I will address.
Figuring out where the NFL number came from took a little more effort. Eventually, I figured it must have come from Mike Sando who gave this tweet after the Patriots/Chiefs games. He seems to have gotten it from somewhere, but I couldn’t determine where it came from.
He states the record of the coin toss winner is 56-50-7 since 2012. This does not match my research, and I’m confident that the mistake is not mine. First of all, Pro Football Reference, shows 118 overtime games since 2012, so unless they mistakenly put in 5 extra games, complete with play-by-plays for overtime, than 56-50-7 cannot be right. Calculating the game-by-game records, at no point in time was the record of the “coin toss winner” 56-50-7. I do see that after October 21, 2018, the record of teams receiving the overtime kickoff was 56-50-7, so it’s probably that the information is old and again not the “coin toss winner”. Not every “coin toss winner” has elected to receive as this research apparently assumes. In college, it’s a minor difference, but since selecting which goal to defend can be a strategic advantage, as I’ll get into later, it seems important to me to correctly label it. Since these numbers got repeated many, many times, that they accepted as absolute fact shows how getting the numbers right can move the debate along properly rather than stifling it.
Why You Should Not Trust The NFL Numbers
There have only been 120 NFL games using the newer overtime system. With that little data, the percentage can change quickly over just a few games. Over the last 40 games, the winning percentage of coin toss winners has range from as high as 57.74% to 53.24%. To show how unreliable small amounts of games can be, I will focus on another college study.
In 2013, Kevin Rudy did this analysis of college football overtime. While Rosen and Wilson focused on teams that played defense last in the first overtime period, Rudy calculated the winning percentage of teams that played defense last in the final overtime period. His study was from the start of the 2008 season until October of 2013, just over 5 years. Given that he just kind of decided to do this one day, the study had some data problems. He had 156 games in the study, 3 of which should not have been counted and he missed 31 others over that period. Still, it works as a random dataset of 156 games.
Among his determinations were that home teams won 56% of their overtime games and teams that played defense last won 61.5% of those games. These were mostly accurate for his dataset, but are actually quite a bit off the all-time numbers and even the period he studies.
The actual winning percentage of home teams over the period studied was 51.7%. The reason he missed so badly was that most of the games he missed, the visiting team won. All-time in FBS overtime games, the home team has won 52.4%. He wasn’t wrong in his dataset, but his dataset was so far off the norm that his conclusion was an erroneous one.
The actual winning percentage of the team playing defense last in the final overtime over that period was 63.59%, even higher than what he found. However, had he done his study over the 5 previous years, he would have come up with a winning percentage of 47.40%, a losing record. All-time, that percentage is 53.35%.
I often see quoted that the rate of teams winning the toss in college is 60%, and it’s usually because the numbers from this study has stuck in some people’s head. If he had come up with the actual percentage over the period, the number quoted would now even be higher, but if the study had been done of the 5 previous years, the narrative would have been the disadvantage of losing the toss.
Why are the percentages so different? Either the style of play changed drastically, or the dataset is too small to give an accurate picture. Plus, the NFL percentage is still changing at a regular rate ranging from a high of 57.74% over the last 40 games to a low of 53.24%. Over the last 7 games, it has risen a full percentage point. More than likely dataset is too small since we only have 120 NFL games to measure the new NFL system with.
Coin Toss Comparison
If you’ve bothered to read everything so far, you understand that there are a lot of ways to look at the college system. There are the ones mentioned and a few more besides so it would not be hard to come up with a number to fit a wide variety of narratives. Confusing things farther is the fact that one team gets to choose “defense, offense or end of field” in every single overtime period, not just the first one. So while games usually go with one team on offense first in the first period, than the other in the second and so on, it doesn’t always happen that way. Probably the only true comparison to the NFL would be to take the winning percentage of the teams that won the coin toss, so I’ll start there.
In the 120 games the NFL has played with their new overtime system (field goal on a first drive doesn’t end the game), 62 have been won by the team that won the toss, 51 by the team that loss the toss and 7 games ended in a tie. A 62-51-7 record computes to a winning percentage of 54.58% (if you count ties as half win/half loss). In the 746 overtime games involving FBS teams, the toss winner won 402 and the toss loser won 344. A 402-344 record computes to a winning percentage of 53.89%. If we wanted to do both since 2012, the year the NFL started the new system in the year the NFL started the new system in the regular season, the NFL would be 60-51-7 (53.81%) and FBS would be 135-124 (52.12%).
If we want to ignore the toss winner and choices and simply go by who received the overtime kickoff in the NFL and who played defense last in FBS college games (the most common choices), the percentages are slightly different. In the 120 NFL games, you’d get 61-52-7 (53.75%), in college you’d get 406-340 (54.42%), or 59-52-7 (52.97%) and 136-123 (52.51%) since 2012.
All-time (NFL New System):

League	Coin Toss	Common Choice
NFL	62-51-7 (54.58%)	61-52-7 (53.75%)
FBS	402-344 (53.89%)	406-340 (54.42%)

Since 2012:

League	Coin Toss	Common Choice
NFL	60-51-7 (53.81%)	59-52-7 (52.97%)
FBS	135-124 (52.12%)	136-123 (52.51%)

If nothing else, the numbers show that those claiming the team winning the coin toss in the college system wins far more then the NFL are way off base. The numbers don’t seem to show that either system offers a much higher advantage to coin toss winner. What we see is that there is an advantage to winning the coin toss, but not really a large one in both college and pro.
College Division Breakdown
Another interesting aspect of the college game is that the defense last strategy shows up to be a bigger advantage at the top level of the game than it is at other levels. While the team going second in the first overtime does win 54.42% of their games, in non-FBS college overtime games, the team going second wins 51.48% of their games (of the games I have).

Division	Def First First Per	Def First Last Per
FBS	54.42%	53.35
FCS	52.03%	53.38%
Division II	50.10%	56.21%
Division III	51.07%	52.40%
NAIA	58.10%	53.33%
All	52.36%	53.44%

It’s interesting that the higher quality teams seem to take advantage of playing defense first more than the lower quality of teams do. This could be an indication that if the NFL were to pick up the college system, the advantage might be higher for the coin toss winner than what we have in college. However, the NAIA numbers might contradict those numbers, although I do only have 210 NAIA overtime game results, so we probably need more data there.
The most interesting thing I found in this information is the division II numbers that have the defense first teams winning a higher percentage of games in multiple overtime games. The teams who played defense last in the first overtime, won over 60% of the games that ended in 2 periods. Of the 13 games that went 4 overtimes, 10 games were won by the team playing defense first.
Further College Breakdown
To get an idea of how the college overtime flows, I have some further breakdowns. Since the division stats very and the FBS level is closest to the NFL, I’ll just give games involving FBS teams.
Games: 746
Multiple Overtime Games: 252 (33.78% of the games)
Periods: 1148 (1.54 per game)
Drives: 2292 (3.07 per game)
Points scored by the offense on each drive:

Points	Drives	Pct
0	616	26.88%
3	539	23.52%
6	347	15.14%
7	720	31.41%
8	70	3.05%

Win/Loss Record By Periods Of The Team On Defense First:

Period	Wins	Losses	Pct
1	406	340	54.42%
2	118	134	46.83%
3	52	48	52.00%
4	14	14	50.00%
5	6	5	54.55%
6	4	2	66.67%
7	3	2	60.00%

Win/Loss Record Of The Team On Offense First, By Points Scored In First Period:

Points	Wins	Losses	Pct
7	242	97	71.39%
6	11	12	47.83%
3	77	134	36.49%
0	10	163	5.78%

The first thing that really stands out here is the winning percentage of the team that played defense first in the second overtime. I’ll let others speculate on why that might be. The other is the winning percentage of teams scoring 7 points when on offense first in the first overtime. Even though there seems to be a disadvantage to going on offense first, teams that score 7 still win almost 3/4ths of the games.
NFL Coin Toss Info
Of the 120 NFL overtime games using the new system, 62 were won by the team that won the toss, 51 by the team that loss the toss, 7 were ties. Calculating the ties as half wins/half losses, that comes to a 54.48% winning percentage. If we toss out the ties, the percentage becomes 54.86%. Clearly, the people that think there’s a huge advantage to winning the toss, aren’t looking at the data. I have a table of the NFL data, and meant to include it here, but Reddit space limits and formatting caused to many issues. If you want to see the data, you can go to my original blog post here.
NFL Drive Breakdown
The first thing I want to look at is the result of the first drive by both the team taking the kickoff. The following chart shows a breakdown of the result of the first drive of overtime and the record with each result. Also, I included just regular season results as well.

Overall	Times	Record	Pct	Reg Season	Times	Record	Pct
TD	24	24-0-0	20.00%	TD	19	19-0-0	16.96%
FG	22	13-6-3	18.33%	FG	22	13-6-3	19.64%
Punt	49	18-28-3	40.83%	Punt	47	16-28-3	41.96%
Turnover	18	4-14-0	15.00%	Turnover	17	4-13-0	15.18%
4 Down Fail	3	0-3-0	2.50%	4 Down Fail	3	0-3-0	2.68%
Missed FG	4	2-1-1	3.33%	Missed FG	4	2-1-1	3.57%
Plays	889		7.41	Plays	839		7.49

Breakdown for the second drive of overtime:

Overall	Times	Record	Pct	Reg Season	Times	Record	Pct
TD	9	9-0-0	9.38%	TD	9	9-0-0	9.68%
FG	34	30-1-3	35.42%	FG	33	19-1-3	35.48%
Punt	31	10-18-3	32.29%	Punt	29	10-16-3	31.18%
Turnover	6	1-5-0	6.25%	Turnover	6	1-5-0	6.45%
4 Down Fail	9	0-9-0	9.38%	4 Down Fail	9	0-9-0	9.68%
Missed FG	7	2-4-1	7.29%	Missed FG	7	2-4-1	7.53%
Plays	627		6.53	Plays	611		6.57

Breakdown of second drive after a field goal:

Overall	Times	Record	Pct	Reg Season	Times	Record	Pct
TD	3	3-0-0	13.64%	TD	3	3-0-0	17.65%
FG	7	3-1-3	31.82%	FG	7	3-1-3	41.18%
Punt	0	0-0-0	0.00%	Punt	0	0-0-0	0.00%
Turnover	2	0-2-0	9.09%	Turnover	2	0-2-0	11.76%
4 Down Fail	9	0-9-0	40.91%	4 Down Fail	9	0-9-0	52.94%
Missed FG	1	0-1-0	4.55%	Missed FG	1	0-1-0	5.88%
Plays	184		8.36	Plays	184		8.36

Breakdown of second drive after a turnover:

Overall	Times	Record	Pct	Reg Season	Times	Record	Pct
TD	3	3-0-0	0.00%	TD	3	3-0-0	17.65%
FG	9	9-0-0	50.00%	FG	8	8-0-0	47.06%
Punt	4	1-3-0	22.22%	Punt	4	1-3-0	23.53%
Turnover	0	0-0-0	0.00%	Turnover	0	0-0-0	0.00%
4 Down Fail	0	0-0-0	0.00%	4 Down Fail	0	0-0-0	0.00%
Missed FG	2	1-1-0	11.11%	Missed FG	2	1-1-0	11.76%
Plays	79		4.65	Plays	74		4.35

First, let’s focus on the obvious. Teams receiving the kickoff have scored on 20% of those drives, giving them immediate victory. On top of that, 18.33% have scored a field goal on the opening drive and ended up winning 65.91% of those. That means teams scoring on the first drive have won 83.70% of their games. Clearly, this is a big advantage. As such, you might wonder why teams receiving the kickoff win under 55% of their games. These numbers also show us some other things.
While people rightfully focus on the advantage of receiving the overtime kickoff, the advantages of being the kickoff team are never mentioned. The first thing to mention is the 18 times that the team receiving the kickoff has turned the ball over. When a team starts with the ball deep in their own end and turns the ball over, it almost always ends in a score, which would end the game in overtime. The average field position after the receiving team turns the ball over is the opponents’ 45 yard line. The average number of plays that occur before these turnovers is 3.44, with the turnover occurring in the first 3 plays 13 times.
Another advantage is the second team gets better field position. The average starting field position of the team receiving the kickoff is their own 23 yard line. The average starting field position of the kicking team after a stop or a field goal is their own 31. While 8 yards isn’t a huge advantage, it’s also noteworthy that the kicking team only needs a field goal to win, while the receiving team can’t end the game with a field goal.
The last advantage I’ll mention is that the team kicking off, if the stop their opponent from scoring a touchdown, knows what they need to do. They number of fourth down failures shows how often a team had gone for it on fourth down. They have done so because the receiving team has kicked a field goal and they know they need to score. If they aren’t in field goal range, they know they have to go for it.
While these advantages don’t outweigh the advantage of receiving the kickoff, they do counter them to the point where kicking off isn’t the huge disadvantage that some people think it is. In fact, there are likely times where the advantageous choice would be to choose which end zone to defend, rather than kicking the ball, usually in bad weather situations. If it is harder to move the ball on offense, it would be worth the risk of the other team scoring, for the likely better field position, particularly if it means kicking with or against the wind.
NFL Plays Vs FBS Plays
The NFL states that it wants to shorten games for player safety. If so, changing to the college system would apparently do that. The current system has overtimes lasting an average of 17.36 plays per overtime game. Interestingly, since the NFL shortened overtime games to 10 minutes or less, the number of plays actually increased to 17.55. In the last 43 games involving an FBS team, the plays per overtime game have averaged 13.42, 4 less than the NFL.
As such, the NFL could have fewer plays if they changed to the college system, though that clearly is not in the works. Among other things, I suspect that the run time for multiple overtime games in college run longer than NFL overtimes. Each overtime period has one timeout per team and in between period, the coin toss options have to be repeated, and the end of field usually changes, not to mention all the extra points. Since run time will affect television, the NFL probably wouldn’t choose that, though they would never state that is the reason.
The Kansas City Proposal
The most common criticism of the NFL overtime is that it’s possible for one team to never possess the ball. As such, the commonly suggested solution is that even if the first team scores a touchdown, give the second team a chance to match. This is a simple and seemingly fair solution, in fact, one that seemed good to me, until I saw these numbers. Unfortunately, though being “fair” in that it gives both teams the ball, it would might give the coin toss winner a bigger advantage, which is the stated reason that most of those people claim is the reason why they want change.
The advantages each team has in the current system are as follows:
Receiving team:
Can end the game with a touchdown without the other team possessing.
First crack at any score after both teams have possessed the ball.
If the other team turns the ball over, might get great field position.
Kicking team:
Gets better field position on average.
Could get great field position on turnover.
Selects end of field.
Knows what they need to score to continue game.
Need only field goal after a stop.
Take away the advantage of ending the game with a touchdown for the receiving team, you remove almost the only advantage the receiving team would get. The kicking team already, on average, starts with better field position, and has a change at great field position with a turnover, but would also have the advantage of knowing what they need to score on their drive. It’s this latter aspect that gives the defense last team an advantage in the college overtime. Given that you add to the advantage of kicking, you might never see a coach elect to receive an overtime kick again. Let’s try to see how much of an impact this would make.
If we assume the results we have so far reflect reality (a large assumption, but it’s all we got), under the current system, teams receiving the kickoff have gone 61-52-7 for a winning percentage of 53.75%. When failing to score a touchdown they have gone 37-52-7 for a winning percentage of 42.19%. It follows if the kicking team gets a possession if they allow a touchdown, the percentage would be between those two marks, the question being how many of those 24 games would the kicking team manage to win after allowing a touchdown. We know that teams trying to score on the first possession have scored touchdowns in 20% of their drives, which is a good place to start. Those teams also score a field goal on 18.33% of their drives, which indicates they were nearing the goal when they were stopped by a fourth down. It follows that if that a team would not kick a field goal if they needed a touchdown, nor would they punt, so that’s it’s going to be higher than that 20%. Teams responding to a field goal have 11 of the 22 times that it has happened. Likely the number of games that a team responding to a touchdown would win would be somewhere between 5 and 10.
So, taking 5 wins away from the 61-52-7 would result in a 56-57-7 record. Taking 10 away would result in a 51-62-7 record. Likely a worse case would give the kicking team a 45.42% winning percentage. Not far off the advantage the receiving team has now, and that’s worse case. And since the likely choice would be to kick, that means the receiving team would also get to choose the end to defense. This is probably not a bad option, considering it would give both teams a chance to have the ball, which is the most common complaint. It would not solve the “coin toss deciding the game” factor though in that it would still be an advantage to win the toss.
The most common other options people give for changing to the NFL system is to use the college system, or a derivative of it. I can only fall back on the data I’ve given for the college system and that it would give the NFL what it claims to want in fewer plays, though people asking for the starting position to be moved back would change that. There seems to be little change that the NFL would change to the college system for the reasons many others have given.
College Options
Currently, the NCAA is looking at a proposal that would change the overtime rules if a game goes into a 5th overtime. Instead of continuing as they had in the first 4 overtimes, the game would go into alternating 2 point conversions, ending when one team scores and the other doesn’t.
It seems likely to me that this is going to pass. Just over 1 in 100 overtime games get to the 5th overtime. This would happen very rarely and it would solve the stated problem for the NCAA. It’s a shame to see any change, but under the banner of “player safety”, this does make sense. The only question I have is would they count as separate overtime periods in the record book. It would be a shame to see the NCAA record 8 overtime game get dethroned by this change.
Another (fan) suggestion that would seem to curb the coin toss advantage is to eliminate all kicking from the overtime periods. Either you score a touchdown, or fail on fourth down. Either you make a 2 point conversion, or you fail in the attempt. Since both teams are doing their best to put the ball in the end zone, the advantage of choosing to kick or not is gone. This would cause it to lose some of its charm, though, in my opinion.
The last (fan) proposal I’ll mention is the one to have each team go for 2 every time they score a touchdown, not just past the 2nd overtime. What would limit the effectiveness of this is that it only would come into play when both teams scored a touchdown. This happens barely 30% of the time. Of the 1005 periods in which teams were not required to go for 2, only 305 of them had both teams scoring a touchdown. Of those 305, 47 were decided when one of the teams went for 2 and 30 were decided when one team made the extra point kick and the other missed it. So of the 305 games where it would have factored, 77 were already decided by current rules.
Of the 143 periods in which teams were required to go for 2, 43 had both teams scoring a touchdown. Of those 43 games, 19 were decided when one team made the 2 point conversion when the other failed, which is 44.19%. If we had a big enough sample, you’d figure that 50% of those games would likely be decided using this method, so I’ll assume that. On a side note, both the 5th and 6th periods have never had a winner decide by this method.
Okay, if you have 305 period where this would applied and assume that 50% were decide by a 2 point system, that means that 152.5 of those periods would have decided that game. Given that 77 were already decided, you’d have a net increase of 75.5 games that this method would decide, or 7.51% of the periods. It seems a rather small percentage of games would be affected by this rule change, though if a 7 overtime game is decided in the first, you could save 6 periods, so it’s difficult to determine how many periods would be saved. It seems a rather large change to make for such a small impact, but that’s my opinion.
Conclusion
Neither the NFL nor the NCAA seems likely to move toward the other’s overtime system, but both are looking at possible changes. Both the NFL and college give an advantage to the coin toss winner, but the winning percentage is less than 55% for both systems neither system seems to give a much larger advantage than the other (despite what is often said).
For the NFL, it seems to make sense to have both teams a chance to possess the ball, even if the first team scores a touchdown. A large number of fans seem to want it and though it flips the odds to favor the kicking team, it the coin toss advantage would likely stay the same. The obvious drawback to this is that the number of plays in the overtime would increase, which is opposite of the NFL’s stated goals.
For the NCAA, the more commonly discussed changes would likely not make much of an impact. The proposed rule change of doing a 2 point conversion shoot out after 4 overtime games would only effect about 1% of the total games. This would eliminate the 7 overtime marathons that occasionally come up, while having no change at all on most of the games.
I started this project in hopes that it would open up some discussion. I feel too often people have tried to stop any constructive conversation by claiming that one system is “more fair” than the other using incorrect coin toss statistics, or just general misunderstandings. I know it was a pointless effort, but it was fun doing it.
I'm curious what opinions people have on what either the NFL or the NCAA should do with overtime.

V1per's Week 8 Survivor/Eliminator Pick

[OC] The 2011 Chiefs had one of the weirdest seasons in recent memory (long-ish writeup)

Week	Team	P(Win)
1	PHI	100%
2	BAL	100%
3	DAL	100%
4	LAC	100%
5	KC	0%
6	NE	100%
7	BUF	100%
8	PIT	90%
9	HOU	69% (nice)
10	NO	86%
11	MIN	79%
12	CHI	79%
13	CAR	85%
14	GB	88%
15	SF	81%
16	SEA	78%
17	LAR	81%

So I spent some time on pro-football-reference.com, and stumbled across one of the most unusual seasons I've ever seen. In this writeup, I'll be discussing several things that really stood out, including the betting lines, the depth charts/quarterback carousel (due to injuries), potential playoff/historical ramifications, Tim Tebow (this was his year) etc.

I probably wasn’t very efficient in how I wrote this writeup, but you win some, you lose some. Hope you enjoy!

Part 0: Some Quick Definitions for Those Unfamiliar with Sports Betting

I'll use terms like point spread, favorite, underdog, oveunder, how all of these are determined by the house, and how all of these apply towards actually placing a bet.
If you are unfamiliar with any of these terms/concepts, I wrote a little writeup here.
Without further ado, let's get started!

Part 1- The Betting Lines

The 2011 Chiefs went 0-4 in games they were considered favorites. Computer simulations were run to determine who was expected to win, the Chiefs were favorites 4 times, and they lost all of them. Maybe it'd be a fluke if all of these games were in the beginning of the season (i.e. models didn't have enough data to work with, teams were still just starting out, etc.), but these games occurred in weeks 1, 8, 9, and 16.

Initially, there's really not much special here- excluding the 2011 Chiefs, here are all of the other teams that lost all of their games as favorites:

0-3 as favorites: 1978 Colts (finished 5-11), 1994 Redskins (3-13), 1998 Rams (4-12), 2014 Buccaneers (2-14), 2016 Bears (3-13), 2017 Giants (3-13)
0-4 as favorites: 1991 Bengals (3-13), 2008 Browns (4-12)
0-5 as favorites: 1980 Seahawks (4-12), 1983 Eagles (5-11)

There are 10 such teams. 8 of them finished with 2-4 wins. The other 2 went 5-11. What makes the 2011 Chiefs notable? They went 7-9.

Interesting. There were no pick'em's, so they went 7-5 in games they were underdogs, and 0-4 in games they were favorites. At the surface, that seems a little... off. They lost all of the games they should have won, and had a winning record in games they shouldn't have won.

So I decided to dig a little deeper.

Part 2- The Betting Lines- Digging Deeper

When they were favorites (4 times), they lost by 34, 28, 7, and 3. They lost by an average of 18 points (3 scores) when they were favorites. All of these were at home.

The Chiefs had 7 matchups in which they were underdogs by more than a touchdown, none of these being less than 9 points. The following are not coincidences:

2 of these came in the 2 weeks following the loss by 34 as favorites.
The other 5 happened 5 weeks in a row, following the losses by 28 and 7 as favorites.

Naturally, we might expect them to get wrecked in these matchups. But, somehow, they actually did better: They lost by an average of 14 points (2 scores) when they were underdogs by at least 9 points. They even won a couple of these games, going 2-5. They lost by 45, 31, 27, 4, and 3. They won by 5 and 7.

So they did better against teams they were underdogs by at least 9 points, than they did against teams they were favorites against. They even won 2 of the games in which they were underdogs by at least 9 points. But it gets even stranger: These were 2 of the more unlikely wins in recent memory, and that's not even including the betting lines. There's a lot to unpack here, so I'll be giving some more background information:

Part 3: Matt Cassel's Injury, Tyler Palko, and Foxborough

So, the Chiefs primary QB in 2011 was Matt Cassel. He had just come off of a Pro Bowl season in 2010 and led the Chiefs to a division title for the first time since 2003. While he wasn't playing at that level in 2011, peak Matt Cassel is better than some Matt Cassel.

But at this time of the season for the 2011 Chiefs, some Matt Cassel was probably better than no Matt Cassel.

The latter is exactly what the 4-5 Chiefs were faced with in week 10, when Cassel suffered a hand injury in week 9 that ultimately ended his season. His replacement was 2007 UDFA Tyler Palko, who had only thrown 13 career passes entering that week 10 game.

Going to Foxborough (home of the Patriots, who finished 13-3) probably isn't the best place for Palko.

And he got wrecked. The Chiefs, normally averaging almost 16 points per game, lost 3-34. Tyler Palko had an 0:3 TD-INT ratio. And the Chiefs were at home for next week, thankfully, but they had to face an eventual 12-4 Steelers team.

The 4-6 Chiefs, still only 2 games out of first place in the AFC West, needed QB help to magically fall right out of the sky in order to save their season, or at least bring it back to respectability- and it came.

Part 4: Kyle Orton

2011 was Tim Tebow's famous season. The Broncos were 1-4 with Kyle Orton, their initial starter and 4-1 with Tebow, who wasn't the best QB, but kept magically finding ways to win games. I still remember all the boos the Broncos fans brought because they wanted Tebow, and it sure paid off for the team.
The day after the Chiefs got slaughtered by the Patriots, the Broncos placed Orton on waivers, and the Chiefs instantly pounced.

So now they have a guy they know is definitively a starting-caliber QB and a massive upgrade on Palko, but he doesn't know the playbook. He has to learn it as quickly as possible, and mind you it's week 11 at this point.

So the Chiefs have to stick with Tyler Palko for a little while longer. And things still didn't get better the next week- they lost 9-13 to the Steelers. Palko turned the ball over 4 more times (3 INT, 1 fumble), and still didn't throw a touchdown.

All of this accumulates to...

Part 5: The Road Win Against the 7-4 Bears, who were favorites by 9 points

The Bears entered this game at home at 7-4, and were well in contention to secure a wild card berth (the undefeated Packers had the division virtually wrapped up). They entered facing a team that, over the last 2 weeks, averaged 6 points and gave up 22. The Bears, heavily favored in this game, came in averaging 26.

Their starting QB, Jay Cutler, was also knocked out for the season in week 10, but their offense at least showed signs of life the week before, with backup QB Caleb Hanie against a 6-4 Raiders team. Enough to have that much of an advantage (on paper) against the Palko-led Chiefs. When healthy, they actually looked like a productive enough team that it was probably safe to bet on them despite a new QB.

Instead, they faceplanted.

They didn't pick Palko off once, and Hanie was the one who ended up throwing 3 picks. They had their chances- reaching the Chiefs 40 yard line 5 times, and these were the results: turnover on downs, FG, punt, missed FG, INT.

That's not to say the Chiefs offense was particularly productive, either. They made it to the Bears 40 yard line twice. One of them ended in a 21 yard field goal; the other ended in this Hail Mary touchdown to conclude the first half. This was one of only 2 TD's Tyler Palko ever threw in the NFL. He was out of the league after the 2011 season.

The Chiefs actually benched Palko in favor of Orton to start the second quarter, with the score tied 0-0. Orton got hurt the very first play, and had to leave the game.

And miraculously, the 5-7 Chiefs are still in it. They proceeded to lose 10-37 to the Jets the next week and fired their head coach Todd Haley and named Romeo Crennel their interim coach.

It's now week 15, the 5-8 Chiefs are now 3 games out. They trail the 8-5 Broncos, 7-6 Raiders, and 6-7 Chargers in the AFC West. It would be a miracle if they made the playoffs, but it's not impossible. But they were likely about to face mathematical elimination, as they were facing a 13-0 Packers team that eventually finished 15-1.

But then...

Part 6: The Win Against the 13-0 (eventually 15-1) Packers, who were favorites by 11.5

I'm still not quite sure how this one happened. This was the Packers' only loss of the regular season.

To a team that started a new QB and had a new head coach in their first games of the season. It's week 15.

The Chiefs, who struggled mightily to score points week after week, made it to Green Bay's 30 yard line in 6 of their first 8 full drives. To their 15 in 5 of them. To their 3 in 4 of them. And scored 19 points. From weeks 8-13, the Chiefs didn't put up more than 10 points in a single game.

The Packers, on the other hand, had one of the top offenses in the NFL. They didn't score less than 24 all season, and consistently put up scores in the 30's and 40's. They finished the year averaging 35 points per game. When there were only 5 minutes left in the game, the Packers only put up 7 points, eventually losing 19-14.

The Chiefs got blown out the week before, had several embarrassing blowouts a few weeks prior (which we'll talk about), and came out of nowhere to shut down a top-3 offense in the NFL, while fielding a new coach and starting QB (who was only there for 3.5 weeks) in their first game for the team. Amazing.

But remember, not all of their season was good...

Part 7: Two of the Embarrassing Losses as Favorites

In week 1, they were favorites by 3.5 against the Bills and starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who eventually finished 6-10. They lost 7-41. Never underestimate the power of the Fitzmagic.

In week 8, they were 4-3, and facing the 0-7 Dolphins at home, who also had a backup QB (this time, because starting QB Chad Henne dislocated his shoulder). The Chiefs were favorites by 4. They lost 3-31. (The Dolphins finished 6-10)

Both of these were with a healthy Matt Cassel, by the way. They were a healthy team, and got embarrassed at home by two mediocre teams (at best). They eventually played 2 new QB's (and eventually, a new head coach), and pulled off two of the biggest upsets of the season, one on the road. They gave up only 14 points to the undefeated Packers, and 31 and 41 to the Dolphins and Bills. How ridiculous is that.

How ridiculous is any of this.

Part 8: Barely Missing the Playoffs

To think this team finished only one game out of the playoffs.

It's week 16, and the AFC West is as follows: Broncos 8-6, Raiders 7-7, Chiefs 6-8, Chargers 6-8. The Chiefs are playing the Raiders.

The score is 13-13 with 5 seconds left, and Chiefs K Ryan Succop has the game winning field goal blocked. It goes to OT, where Carson Palmer immediately connects with Darrius Heyward-Bey for a 53 yard completion. The Raiders kick the game winning field goal (back then, the Chiefs weren't allowed a chance to possess the ball), and the Chiefs are done. Here are the highlights from that game.

But if Succop makes that kick, the 7-8 Chiefs play the 8-7 Broncos in a winner-takes-all match for the AFC West.

The Chargers and Raiders are both 7-8, and they face each other. IIRC, neither of them would be able to tiebreak over the 8-8 Chiefs nor the 8-8 Broncos, so they'd both be eliminated.
If the Chiefs won that game, they'd tiebreak over the 8-8 Raiders (if they won) by having the head to head advantage (2-0). They'd tiebreak over the 8-8 Broncos and 8-8 Chargers (if they won) by having the best divisional record (4-2 vs. 3-3 each), as they split the season series with both.

I have full reason to believe the Chiefs would have won that game with these stakes.

The Chiefs actually won that game 7-3 when it happened.
The Broncos weren't resting their starters- if they lost, and the 8-7 Raiders beat the Chargers that day, then the Raiders would take the AFC West. But the 7-8 Chargers beat them on the road, and the 8-8 Broncos were saved via tiebreakers over the 8-8 Raiders and 8-8 Chiefs.
Both games happened at 4:00 ET.

One missed kick could have stopped Tim Tebow from throwing this famous game-winning TD on the first play of OT against the Steelers in wild card weekend that year.

Also: that game Matt Cassel got hurt was against the Tebow-led Broncos. Tim Tebow literally completed 2 passes that game- including this long TD to seal the game. That has only happened 2 other times since 1982, including once in 2000 where the Bengals ran for almost 400 yards. Shoutout to everyone that had Corey Dillon (22 carries, 278 yards, 2 touchdowns) in fantasy that day... surprisingly enough (to me, at least), fantasy football did exist on a mainstream level in 2000. CBS launched their fantasy league website in 1997. Within 3 years, most major sports websites had them. (I read that from here.) But, I digress.

That Tebow TD was on 3rd and 10. If that (and a first down) doesn't happen, the Chiefs get the ball down 3 with 6 minutes left. If they were to somehow beat Tebow, the God of late-game heroics, then that game could have also helped the Chiefs' case.

Part 9: Other Playoff Ramifications- NFC Playoffs

The Chiefs could have messed up the AFC playoff standings. They could have also messed with the NFC playoff standings. This one's definitely a stretch, but let's have some fun:

That Bears, who lost to the Tyler Palko-led Chiefs, missed the playoffs by 2 games, and finished as the 7 seed. This isn't exactly notable, until you consider that the 6 seed was the Detroit Lions, and both were in the NFC North. As such, with the way the scheduling works out, the Lions also played the Chiefs. The Lions were also favorites by 9 against the Chiefs at home, but ended up smoking them, 48-3.

Outside of their games against Kansas City, the Lions were 9-6, and the Bears were 8-7. The Chiefs only pulled the upset against the Bears; what happens if that upset comes against the Lions instead (and the Bears win)? It's a little complicated, but the Bears actually make the playoffs instead. Both teams finish 9-7, and the Bears own the tiebreaker. (I can post the full tiebreaker scenarios if anyone wants)

The Bears would play the Saints in the Dome in the playoffs. We'd get treated to the enticing matchup of Drew Brees vs. Josh McCown, whom the Bears signed on the same day the Chiefs signed Kyle Orton.

So far, the Chiefs have screwed the Bears over by beating them and not beating the Lions. But there's one final way they screwed them over: The Bears put in a waiver claim to get Kyle Orton when the Broncos waived him, but the Chiefs had higher waiver order, so they got him. The Bears probably called McCown immediately after hearing that they couldn't bring Orton back to Chicago. Instead of McCown, they could have had Kyle Orton, who was likely a massive upgrade over both McCown and Caleb Hanie.
The Cowboys were the only other team to put in a claim (despite Romo playing all 16 games), but I have no idea who would have gotten Orton if Kansas City hadn't claimed him.

All I know is, the Chiefs had a chance to mess up both conferences' playoff pictures in a way that puts 2 very unlikely teams into the playoffs. They instead messed with neither. But we did get the magic of Tim Tebow in that season, so I'm okay with it. Skip Bayless is too. God I miss DJ Steve Porter...

Part 10: Conclusion

The 2011 Chiefs didn't win a single game as favorites. They had 4. Of all of the teams that did this with at least 3 games as favorites, only the Chiefs finished better than 5-11. They went 7-9, meaning that they went 7-5 in games they were underdogs.

They fared better against teams in which they were 9+ point underdogs, than teams in which they were favorites.

They even won 2 out of 7 as 9+ point underdogs. One of those wins was on the road against a 7-4 team with a backup QB, and needed a literal Hail Mary touchdown to win. The other was against a 13-0 (eventual) 15-1 team that scored 35 points per game; they were held to just 14 points, and 7 in the first 56 minutes. In this game, they used a 3rd string QB, who was only on their roster for 3.5 weeks, and they also used a backup coach.

A healthy Chiefs team with their starting QB and coach got slaughtered at home by an 0-7 team with a backup QB. They lost to an eventual 6-10 Bills team at home. On that same home turf, they shut down the 13-0 (eventually 15-1) Packers with an interim coach and a 3rd string QB. Only once did they ever win by more than a touchdown- a 28-0 shutout against the Raiders in Oakland.

Even with their starting QB, from weeks 8-13, they didn't put up more than 10 points in a single game. They won 1 of them, in part due to a miraculous Hail Mary touchdown.

12 of their 16 games went under the oveunder. 7 of these 12 didn't even come close to the oveunder; they had games that missed it by 13, 13.5, 14, 15.5, 18.5, 22, and 27.5. They went 2-5 in these games. And these weren't even particularly large oveunders- 35, 37.5, 40.5, 41.5, 42.5, 43, 46.

There were 38 games (out of 267) with an oveunder <= 38. The Chiefs had 4 of them, tied for 3rd most. (The Browns led with a whopping 8. Literally half of their season. Poor Colt McCoy)
There were 29 games (out of 267) with an oveunder <= 37.5. The Chiefs had 3 of them, tied for 9th (somehow). The Browns led with 6.
There were 9 games (out of 267) with an oveunder <= 35.5. The Chiefs had 2 of them, tied for 2nd (the Bears won with 3). The Browns actually had 0.
The average oveunder in a game in 2011 was slightly less than 44. The Chiefs played 11 games with an oveunder less than 44. There were 137 in total.

In only 1 of the 4 games that went over the oveunder, the Chiefs had a shot, and they won by 4. They lost the other 3 by an average of 35 points- 5 touchdowns.

They were 5-8 and last place in the AFCW, 3 games out of first place, and on a new QB and a new coach. Their season was saved by a shocking win against the undefeated Packers. They fell one game out of the playoffs, possibly off a blocked field goal. Maybe not as crazy as that time the 4-8 Chargers took the division away from the 8-4 Broncos, but still.

We were one game away from Kyle Orton potentially knocking Tim Tebow out of the playoffs. The same Kyle Orton that the Broncos benched for Tim Tebow that same season. He did get his revenge in week 17 by beating the Broncos, though.

I would like to submit the argument that this is one of the weirdest seasons the league has seen in recent memory.

Other Sources

2011 Chiefs Betting Lines. From there, you can click on individual teams/games, as I did to get more information.
I ran some code to see if there were any teams that lost all of their games (at least 3) as favorites and double-checked them all manually. Same with the oveunder data I talked about. If anyone wants the code for that let me know, as it does some basic HTML scraping (accessing web data locally).
Rotoworld gave me a ton of Kyle Orton-related information while he was with the Chiefs.

One Other Thing I wanted to Include

The Chiefs have had some crazy playoff scenarios around this time period. Lest we forget the highly improbable way they made the playoffs in week 17 of 2006.

Thank You

For reading this long writeup despite me probably being a little all over the place. Have a great day! :-)

My Therapy

At my most recent Problem Gambling Support Group meeting via Skype (the same one posted on here weekly) it was my turn to do a therapy session. This is my journey from starting gambling until now. I thought it would be worth sharing here as someone may get something from it. It is a bit of a long read.
My name is Mark and i’m a compulsive gambler. My last bet was April 2nd 2019. The day of April 2nd was a massive turning point in my life, it was the day I finally admitted to my long term partner, who is the mother of my two children, and to my parents that I was a compulsive gambler and needed help. The weekend prior was when I finally said to myself I’ve had enough, I had been betting for 14 years and it had beaten me so badly that I was a mess mentally and financially. Although no one knew that because I was an expert at hiding it.
I started gambling like almost anyone in the UK or Ireland, The Grand National. The one day of the year where it seems like every man, woman and child has a bet on. The biggest horse race in the world. That and those glorious holidays spent in Portrush playing the 2p machines (penny fall machines). I don’t for one second blame those experiences for my gambling problem, they are just my first memories of gambling. One really vivid memory I have of gambling was when I was begging my dad for the latest Official Playstation Magazine, the one with the demo disc, and he was just sitting down to watch England play against someone and said to me “if Paul Scholes scores the first goal I will get you the magazine.” Now, I know for a fact win or lose my Dad would have gotten me the magazine, he just said that so I would give him peace to watch the match. Well I remember watching the game with him hoping with all my might Paul Scholes would score 1st and he did. That adrenaline rush, even at a young age (I was 13 years old at most I would say) was unbelievable. Now, again, I am not blaming that for my gambling addiction at all, it is just one of my first vivid memories but that mentality of gambling to get something I want for free would be a regular pattern throughout my gambling career.
Once I turned 18 I opened my first betting account with Blue Sq and that started my online sports gambling journey. Friday nights were spent betting on Wolverhampton all weather horse racing and the Dutch and French 2nd Divisions. All harmless fun, controlled gambling, small stakes. I was still working part time at this stage, left school that summer and gambling was not in the way. Once I got my full time job though that all changed.
The first time I could put my finger on when my gambling changed was the first day of the 2008/2009 football season. I’d been working full time for about 3 years and my gambling was still under control, well, at least I thought it was. My stakes were still low and I was doing football bets at the weekend for a bit of fun. I gambled, but it wasn’t causing me any issues. That Friday I walked into a Paddy Power and decided instead of placing a load of stupid football bets for £1 or £2 I’d pick three teams for the season and do a £20 treble each week. Sheffield United, Leicester City and Leeds United were the picks. Of course, the first weekend it landed (the only time it landed all season I think) and my betting changed from that moment. I genuinely can’t remember the odds but I must have lifted over £100 from that £20 stake and after that staking £1 or £2 just wasn’t appealing. What was the point in that when I could stake £20 and win more. From that moment my gambling started to get out of control over time. Then came the loans, the credit cards and the payday loans.
At some point around this time I had opened a spread betting account due to a sign up offer. Now I did not have the first clue about spread betting but the offer was they gave you a free £100 or something to sign up so I did. I was still living at home at the time and we had one computer which everyone used. Well my Dad stumbled upon this website and was able to access the account (he’s not technically minded so I imagine I left it logged in) and he seen the betting history and he went mental at me. Now, I did explain that it was just bonus funds and I hadn’t actually deposited any of my own money but still the lecture came. It felt like a lecture at the time to me but he was just warning me of the dangers of gambling. Giving me examples of people he knew who had a problem and how easy it is for a gambling problem to begin. So I can never turn around and say that I wasn’t aware of the dangers, I was, my ego was just too big to listen. I paid lip service to the lecture and said I wouldn’t do it again and my Dad took me at my word and trusted me.
So, I knew early on I had a problem. I self excluded from places over the years but never really wanted to quit. I was getting in debt but was able to continue with my lifestyle as I was living at home. I remember one day going to a cheque cashing place where I could write a cheque for £100, dated on my next payday, and they’d give me £90 there and then. I did two cheques for going out that weekend (and a couple of bets on the Aintree Festival) walked straight to the bookies and had the £180 on Denman to win the Aintree Bowl at even money. Denman was a monster of a horse, a machine. He could not lose...then he suffered the first fall of his career. Back I went to the cheque cashing place for another £90 so I could still go out that weekend.
I wasn’t learning from my betting mistakes either as I was just borrowing more money to cover the cracks. I got a few debt consolidating loans over the early years to try and get a handle on my debt but it just gave me an excuse to take out more credit. The payday loans which I used to either gamble or cover my expenses for going out because I used all my money gambling. I would borrow money off my Dad and give him the puppy dog eyes when I paid it back and normally he’d only take half of what I owed him. He thought he was doing the right thing and he wanted me to have money to be able to go out with friends, I was just manipulating the situation.
I moved out and into my friends house for a year and the gambling continued, although I had less money to gamble with. My credit rating was taking a battering but I was young and didn’t really care. Then I met my current girlfriend in February 2010 and we moved in together that September. The gambling continued and was getting worse. I made the smart move to get a second job to supplement my gambling…...at a greyhound track. I’d be earning about £20 a night but gambling £60 or £80. Insanity. We had our first child in April 2012 and not long after she found out I’d be gambling some of the money we’d saved. It wasn’t a lot of money, but she was pissed (rightfully so). I managed to talk my way out of it and that was when I became really good at hiding things. She took control of the rent money and any money for our son so that was never in danger thankfully. We had our daughter in 2016 but the gambling still continued.
It may seem like I have glossed over an important period of time there but the truth is I can’t really remember any of the details. The only details I am able to recall with any great clarity are coming up but I just want to touch on a couple of things from this period. This was a time when I had the biggest wins of my gambling career, two separate occasions. One was an insane run of luck where I couldn’t lose all weekend and ended up with enough money for me, my partner and our Son to have our first and only foreign holiday. Another time I had a £5 free bet and landed a treble at Sandown, all Gary Moore horses and won £3.5k. That money went towards decorating the nursery for my soon to be born Daughter, my partner got money, my Mum and Dad and her Mum and Dad. I bought a PS4 and gambled the rest from memory. The two reasons these moments stick in my head isn’t just the amounts, it’s the only time I walked away in profit, at least for the sessions in question and the reason is that I told my partner I had won the money. That was the only way I knew I wouldn’t gamble it all away because she would ask questions if the money I promised didn’t materialise.
Another part of this time period I want to explore is how I was emotionally. I was 25 when we had our Son and he wasn’t planned. It was a shock to say the least and my life, as I knew it anyways, changed. No longer was I able to do what I wanted socially, I had a Son to provide for. I was working two jobs, money was tight, was I still gambling? Of course I was but slowly I started to strip everything else out of my life. We had our daughter when I was 29 and to be honest here, as much as it sadeness me I thought this way I resented having kids, especially at that age. I felt trapped at times, people I knew were able to do what they want but yet I had all this responsibility. Don’t get me wrong, I loved my kids during this time as well and they meant the world to me, but I do feel that I got into the thought process that I was trapped because of them and my only escape was into the world of online gambling.
I would go through phases where I’d stop altogether for months on end, a year at one point which I imagine was around the time my partner found out about me using the savings for gambling, but I’d always go back to it thinking I was in control but I never was. When gambling I’d deposit £10, lose it, deposit another £10, lose it, rinse and repeat until all my money was gone. If I won it just meant I could gamble longer. It was never about the money. I thought it was, but really the money was the fuel that could keep me gambling longer. Most months I was skint a few days after payday and couldn’t gamble until the next payday. It may not sound like a lot of money but it was a relentless cycle month after month after month.
At the end of 2016 I got an overdraft of £2k and gambled it all on soccer all around the world. Woke up and started gambling in Asia, moved across the globe into the Middle East, Africa, Europe and then fell asleep betting on South American football. It was out of control. Betting on Egyptian football on Xmas Day a particular lowlight. This was what my gambling looked like when I had money. All these bets were in-play as that’s how I gambled, watching a little graphic on Bet365 and thinking I could predict what was going to happen. I also gambled heavily on tennis as well, picking a player to win a set 6-0 was one of my favourites. Generally I would start with £10 as I mentioned and if the bet won I would keep “investing” all the money until it got to a certain amount, normally a couple of hundred quid. Once I got to that point I would raise my stakes significantly because I would tell myself it wasn’t my money. It wasn’t if I didn’t count all the loses it took to get to this point over the previous few days. I would then gamble that until it’s gone cursing myself for not taking the money when I had the chance. Placing the last of my money praying to a god I don’t believe in that if he could just make this bet land then I wouldn’t bet again. Once the money was done I would just sit there, looking at my bank balance, the lack of money, the direct debits due to come out in a few days, trying to figure out how I would survive the next 3-4 weeks until payday. Then I would dust myself off and start working on some budgets. What direct debits I could bounce, who I could ask to borrow money from or maybe what I could sell to fund another round of gambling to try and win my money back.
Coming into 2018 I was in a “good place” with gambling, or so I thought. I was Matched Betting which was a way of making money via bookmakers offers. It worked well for a few months but it all went to shit in the Summer of 2018. Matched Betting introduced me to the casino side of things and I lost £3.5k on roulette. I’ll not go into the ins and outs of how I had that sort of money, lets just say I didn’t and I found a way to deposit via direct debit on PayPal and of course those all bounced. Luckily Paddy Power rewarded me by making me a VIP customer after that, every cloud and all that. So I was chasing big style and getting free £50 bonuses each week from them but I could never get enough money to stop, because no amount was ever going to be enough. Their offers of Money Back if Horse X wins are normally £10 max refund, I was getting £100 max refund. Eventually I was running out of ways to get money and when I started to bet less with Paddy Power they removed my VIP status. I did win £1000 on an NFL bet and lost the lot on roulette the next week. Another lowlight.
The win on the NFL followed by the lose on roulette sticks in my mind because visually it summed up how miserable I was. I had promised my partner back at the start of the year that we would get the living room redecorated and I would pay with it from my Matched Betting and she was happy with that. Of course I explained it was risk free and nothing could go wrong and it wasn’t even gambling. Anyways, come November we are due to have our living room redecorated and of course I do not have the money for it so I have to go to my Mum and Dad. I give them some sob story about how when I was Matched Betting I made a mistake, layed off the wrong horse and lost my money so could then lend me it and don’t tell my partner. It was a complete lie and to be honest at the time I didn’t think they had bought it but they lent me the money. Turns out when I told them about my gambling problem back in April they had smelt bull shit but my Granda (on my Dad’s side) was ill in the hospital and he was stressed about that so he just let it slide. So the redecoration was on and it was going to take a couple of days. One Monday night I had a bet on the NFL and it landed, £10 at 100/1. Happy days, I can give my Mum and Dad back their money, it’s nearly Xmas, this is amazing luck. So on Tuesday night I sat in my half decorated living room and thought if I could just win a little bit more then things would be even better so loaded up the roulette. I lost it all sitting in the living room and during it I could literally see what the money would be paying for but it didn’t stop me, nothing would stop me.
2019 I could feel myself struggling. My life was consumed with gambling or working out how to get money to gamble and then how I was going to pay people back what I owed them. I was in a bad place, I was a bad person, lying, angry but still no one knew the truth. January had always been a tough month as I run several NFL Fantasy Football leagues for money and I am in charge of the money. Of course, that was always gambled away by me and January was the month people expected pay outs because the season was over. Usually I would have won enough money in my leagues to cover it or convince people to pay for next year with their winnings that I could cover it. This year I could not and I had the added pressure of owing people money. A lot of these people were friends of mine I knew personally, others were people I had gotten to know over a few years and only talked online. Either way I had stolen their money and gambled it away. I managed to use my Granda’s death in January as an excuse for why I had not paid people yet, I was in a bad way with the funeral etc, all the excuses, the truth is I was just trying to buy more time.
Then came the weekend prior to April 2nd. I had just been paid and deposited some money into my Bet365 account and managed to get my balance up to £910 on Friday 29th March. I should say by this stage I was fully gambling on tennis. Not match winner, that took too long, generally set winner or next game winner as that was quicker. Now this £910 would have cleared some of my urgent debts to allow me to continue on gambling. All I had to do was withdraw, and I was going to…...once I got it up to a nice round £1000. As you can guess I lost the lot. £300-£400 on Benoit Paire was one of the worst hits but I was gambling like a mad man. That was how I bet when I had winnings, the stakes got out of control. By the time I was leaving work at 6pm on the Friday the whole £910 was gone. I was betting on ATP, Challenger, ITF, any tennis that was on I was betting on it. Back in the day I remember betting on a tennis match where they had one ball. Still a story that brings a smile to my face if I’m honest. A smile that consists of a mixture of shame and cringe. That Friday night I deposited whatever I had left in and managed to win back a good chunk of the money, but it still wasn’t enough. It still wasn’t what I had before. So the whole weekend went like that, up and down, up and down. I went to a family dinner and sat betting on my phone the whole night. That’s how my life has been the last number of years, i’m present at gatherings, or nights out but my mind is deep in my phone gambling away not giving a shit about anyone.
Eventually the money ran out that weekend. I was a mess. I could have actually made it work financially and gotten through the month but mentally I was gone. I could tell my brain had put me into a nosedive and the only way this was all ending was in disaster. Maybe not this month, or this year but I was being flown towards rock bottom.
I sat down on the Monday and wrote out everything that I owed, who I owed it to, a budget going forward. It was grim enough reading, £18k in the hole. The money wasn’t the issue, it was how it was making me feel, the time I’ve been wasting. The fact that I finally couldn’t take anymore, that I was ready to wave the white flag and say gambling has won, it defeated me. I found out when and where the nearest GA Meeting was to me and wrote that down too. So I found a set of balls and on the Tuesday I told my girlfriend. My attitude was that life can’t be any worse for me than it currently is. I was a mess, I cried, I honestly expected her to tell me to get out and I wouldn’t have blamed her, but she was amazing. She was angry obviously, but she was so supportive. Then I called my parents round and told them. They were disappointed, confused but also really supportive. Then the next day I told my closest friends who were again all really supportive. I owe them some money too and they’ve been great about setting up a payment plan to pay that back. I can imagine some people saying that I didn’t hit rock bottom in comparison to others, I felt that way myself to be honest. I felt like I had gotten off lightly but looking back the cycle I was in was soul destroying and although I didn’t cause the devastation others have caused I knew I needed to reach out for help as I couldn’t do it on my own.
I registered for GAMStop and self excluded online for 5 years which has taken the avenue of online gambling away from me. A vital step if online is your vice. I also handed over control of my finances to my partner which again removed another temptation. I’ve since learned in recovery that gamblers need 3 things, time, opportunity and money, take away one of those and you won’t be able to gamble. I took away two with these simple steps.
I then went to my first GA Meeting on Wednesday 3rd April. The time doesn’t suit me for that, Monday at 9pm is my meeting but I felt I needed to get to one ASAP. I don’t know what I expected GA to be, some sort of church run cult filled with a bunch of old men desperate for a bet but it’s one of the most amazing groups I’ve ever found. It’s a dumping ground for all my shit and it’s a place where I can listen to other people’s stories. Without sounding sexist, it’s something a lot of men could do with outside of addiction, a place to talk about life and how they are feeling. I take a 50 mile round trip every Monday to get there. When I was gambling if I had to travel 50 miles to get internet to gamble you can guarantee I’d have travelled every day. When I leave a meeting I am buzzing, for all the right reasons. I’m a lifer when it comes to GA now and I am fine with that.
I am also a member of the Problem Gambling Support Group and we run three meetings a week via Skype. This group has been so influential to my recovery and I have met so many good people I now consider friends through it. The topic meeting style is completely different to what happens at my own GA so it fits into my recovery perfectly and gives me a different perspective.
I have a sponsor, who has had a massive impact on my recovery. He has helped me work the Steps and is always there if I need him. At times it’s hard to tell who is sponsoring who but that sort of dynamic works well for me as I see him as a friend first and sponsosponsee second.
I have also found a passion for writing about my journey and post my stuff on my blog, on GamCare and on the Reddit Problem Gambling Sub. I have been told my stuff is very good and people seem to get a lot from it. As I explained at a recent meeting I am still learning how to deal with praise, it makes me feel awkward. I’m not sure if it’s from years of not wanting to be the focus of people's attention because of the fear they might ask questions and my addiction would be exposed. Whatever the reason I am working on being able to accept praise and enjoy it and as I was told at the last meeting...a simple thank you is usually enough.
I’ve been clean for over 9 months now, and I have not struggled with urges to gamble. My life is amazing, it always was but I was too wrapped up in my addiction to notice. I literally had everything I could ever want. I have an amazing partner and two amazing children along with my parents who are absolutely fantastic. I have my health, a job and my friends are another support network I couldn’t do without now. They stood by me when I admitted my problem and they gave me the belief that I could do this.
Recovery is now my focus along with my family. The debt can be managed, stopping gambling is one day at a time, but the main focus of my recovery will be fixing my character defects, helping others, being open and honest to people and not being a selfish asshole. I would like to think those that know me now can at least drop the selfish part when describing me.
I have put plenty of work into my recovery and I feel like I am getting the benefits out of it. I have a routine when it comes to meetings and they don’t impact on my family life. Is every day amazing? No it’s not. Some days are rather boring and some days are tough, but that’s life. Some days you have to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. I have accepted what I am, I am a compulsive gambler and I need to be the one who changes. No one else around me needs to change, I am the common denominator. I have noticed a change in myself and those closest to me. They all seem happier, more content, happy to have this me in their life and not the old me. I wasn’t a nice partner, father, son or friend when I was in active addiction. I don’t want to be the person I was before I started gambling either because I am pretty convinced he was an asshole as well. I am using this recovery to become the man I want to be, the man I can look in the mirror and be proud to be.
As I said, I have accepted that I am a compulsive gambler and I cannot have a single bet because it will lead me back to active addiction. I have no issues with the gambling industry or people who gamble, I just know that I am unable to gamble as it ends in disaster. I feel there should be more discussion around problem gambling and the industry should be putting more money into helping problem gamblers and to help identify problem gamblers. It’s a fine line though, as I know if a bookie told me they felt I had a problem and wouldn’t accept a bet I’d have been angry and just went somewhere else. You need to be ready for recovery to fully embrace it. I never was until April 2nd. For the people in recovery we need to be ready to help those that get to the stage where they are ready for recovery. We are the ones who these people will come to rely on as we’ve been through it, you can tell when talking to someone who hasn’t had a gambling addiction they just don’t understand. Over the coming years I think there will be a significant rise in people looking for help with problem gambling. I don’t feel like my story is close to the worst out there and I have read and heard some people who have the opinion that you need to cause devastation before recovery will work. That’s bollocks and that sort of attitude is why GA is filled with old men and young people are reluctant to stay. I have come to believe it doesn’t matter how much you have lost, how many relationships you have destroyed or what age you are, all you need is a desire to stop gambling and that is the qualification for entering recovery.
For now though, for me, my next bet won’t be about the money I lose, I’ll lose my partner and my children as well and that’s not a bet that I am not willing to make.
Mark

Test

This conference realignment is designed to reduce conference sizes down to 12 teams at most while attempting to reduce travel costs for conferences (particularly for the FCS and G5 teams). At the same time, the goal is to bring back traditional rivalries lost to the conference money grab from the late 2000s-2010s while allowing the opportunity for new or recently new regional rivalries to develop. Another reason for this realignment is with an 8 team playoff inevitable, I believe that having 7 Power Conferences would prevent deluding the regular season as I feel 5 Power Conferences could do and maybe 4 Power Conferences. Although Power 4 Conferences could work for football, I feel like it could hurt the Olympic sports outside of football as conferences would spread out even further increasing travel and rivalries in the other Olympic sports would likely be played less frequently along with unbalanced scheduling. With 7 Power Conferences + Big East Basketball of 10-11 Teams each, it allows conferences to play double round robin while potentially playing round robin in football. With 11 team conferences in football, it is a weird format, but the Big Ten made it work for 18 seasons so I’m sure all the other conferences can make it work together. I know this is super long and isn’t perfect and I kept alternate scenarios to keep this proposal fluid and acceptable to changes so I hope to get your opinions on this.
FBS - 132 Teams
Power 7 Conferences - 77 Teams

American Athletic Conference	4 Protected Rivalries
Boston College	Connecticut, Navy, Notre Dame, Syracuse
Cincinnati	Louisville, Pittsburgh, Temple, West Virginia
Connecticut	Boston College, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple
Louisville	Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Rutgers, West Virginia
Navy (Football Only)	Boston College, Notre Dame, Temple, Rutgers
Notre Dame	Boston College, Louisville, Navy, Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Syracuse, West Virginia
Rutgers	Connecticut, Louisville, Navy, Temple
Syracuse	Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Temple	Cincinnati, Connecticut, Navy, Rutgers
West Virginia	Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Teams will play all other conference opponents 4 times every 6 years.
Missed Key Matchups/Rivalries: Louisville-Pittsburgh, Navy-Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh-Temple, Rutgers-Syracuse
Alternate Member: Penn State (Instead of Notre Dame)

Notre Dame Scheduling - Conference Schedule (8 games): - Plays Boston College, Louisville, Navy, and Pittsburgh Annually (4 games) - Plays Cincinnati, Syracuse, and West Virginia 4 times every 6 years (2 games) - Plays Connecticut, Rutgers, and Temple 4 times every 6 years (2 games) - Non-Conference Schedule (4 games): - USC/Stanford (California recruitment/rivalries) - Michigan/Michigan State/Northwestern/Purdue (Big Ten rivalries) - Georgia Tech/Florida State/Miami (FL) (Florida recruitment/rivalries) - Texas/Texas A&M (Texas recruitment) - Air Force/Army, BYU (Academy rivalries, Top Tier Religious University) - Bold = Preferred Non-Conference Games Frequently Scheduled - Sweetening deal, NBC/NBCSN airs AAC games, NBC airs 7-10 ND games

Atlantic Coast Conference	2 Protected Rivalries	4 Protected Rivalries
Clemson	Florida St., Georgia Tech	Miami (FL), NC State
Duke	North Carolina, Wake Forest	Maryland, NC State
Florida St.	Clemson, Miami (FL)	Georgia Tech, Virginia
Georgia Tech	Clemson, Maryland	Florida St., Virginia Tech
Maryland	Virginia, Georgia Tech	Duke, Miami (FL)
Miami (FL)	Florida St., Virginia Tech	Clemson, Maryland
North Carolina	Duke, NC State	Virginia, Wake Forest
NC State	North Carolina, Wake Forest	Clemson, Duke
Virginia	Maryland, Virginia Tech	Florida St., North Carolina
Virginia Tech	Miami (FL), Virginia	Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
Wake Forest	Duke, NC State	North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Teams will play all other conference opponents either 6 times every 8 years OR 4 times every 6 years.
Preference: 2 Protected Rivalries
Missed Rivalries/Key Matchups with 2 Protected Rivalries: Duke-Maryland, Florida St.-Georgia Tech, Florida St.-Virginia, Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech, North Carolina-Virginia, North Carolina-Wake Forest, NC State-Clemson, NC State-Duke

Big Ten Conference	2 Protected Rivals	4 Protected Rivals
Illinois	Indiana, Northwestern	Ohio St., Purdue
Indiana	Illinois, Purdue	Michigan St., Ohio St.
Iowa	Minnesota, Wisconsin	Northwestern, Purdue
Michigan	Michigan St., Ohio St.	Minnesota, Penn St.
Michigan St.	Michigan, Penn St.	Indiana, Wisconsin
Minnesota	Iowa, Wisconsin	Michigan, Penn St.
Northwestern	Illinois, Purdue	Iowa, Wisconsin
Ohio St.	Michigan, Penn St.	Illinois, Indiana
Penn St.	Michigan St., Ohio St.	Michigan, Minnesota
Purdue	Indiana, Northwestern	Illinois, Iowa
Wisconsin	Iowa, Minnesota	Michigan St., Northwestern

Alternate Protected Rivalries (4 PRs): Michigan St.-Ohio St and Indiana-Wisconsin instead of Indiana-Ohio St. and Michigan St.-Wisconsin
Teams will play all other conference opponents either 6 times every 8 years OR 4 times every 6 years.
Preference: 2 Protected Rivalries
Alternate Member: Notre Dame (Instead of Penn State)

Big 12 Conference	2 Protected Rivalries
Boise St.	BYU, San Diego St.
BYU	Boise St., San Diego St.
Colorado	Nebraska, Oklahoma St.
Iowa St.	Kansas St., Missouri
Kansas	Kansas St., Missouri
Kansas St.	Iowa St., Kansas
Missouri	Iowa St., Kansas
Nebraska	Colorado, Oklahoma
Oklahoma	Nebraska, Oklahoma St.
Oklahoma St.	Colorado, Oklahoma
San Diego St.	Boise St., BYU

Teams will play all other conference opponents 6 times every 8 years.
Alternate Member: Utah (Instead of Boise St.)
- Utah plays BYU and Colorado annually
- Oklahoma St.-San Diego St. become annual rivals

Pacific-12 Conference	2 Protected Rivalries
Arizona	Arizona St., Utah
Arizona St.	Arizona, Utah
California	Stanford, UCLA
Oregon	Oregon St., Washington
Oregon St.	Oregon, Washington St.
Stanford	California, USC
UCLA	California, USC
USC	Stanford, UCLA
Utah	Arizona, Arizona St.
Washington	Oregon, Washington St.
Washington St.	Oregon St., Washington

Teams will play all other conference opponents 6 times every 8 years.
Missed Rivalries/Key Matchups: Stanford-UCLA, California-USC, Oregon-Washington St., Oregon St.-Washington
Alternate Member: Boise St. (Instead of Utah)
- Boise State would play Arizona and Arizona St. annually

Southeastern Conference	4 Protected Rivalries	6 Protected Rivalries
Alabama	Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee	Georgia, Miss. State
Auburn	Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Miss State	LSU, Ole Miss
Florida	Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee	Kentucky, LSU
Georgia	Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, Vanderbilt	Alabama, Tennessee
Kentucky	Miss. State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt	Florida, Ole Miss
LSU	Alabama, Miss. State, Ole Miss, South Carolina	Auburn, Florida
Miss. State	Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss	Alabama, Vanderbilt
Ole Miss	Alabama, LSU, Miss. State, Vanderbilt	Auburn, Kentucky
South Carolina	Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU	Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Tennessee	Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt	Georgia, South Carolina
Vanderbilt	Kentucky, Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee	Miss. State, South Carolina

Teams will play all other conference opponents 4 times every 6 years OR 2 times every 4 years.
Alternate Protected Rivalries (for 4 Rivalries Only):
1. Georgia-LSU and South Carolina-Vanderbilt instead of Georgia-Vanderbilt and LSU-South Carolina
2. Alabama-Mississippi St. and Auburn-Ole Miss instead of Alabama-Ole Miss and Auburn-Mississippi St.
Missed SEC Divisional Games or Rivalries: Alabama-Florida, Auburn-Tennessee, Georgia-Kentucky, Florida-Vanderbilt
Preference: 6 Protected Rivalries or Alternate 4 PRs #1

Southwest Conference	2 Protected Rivalries	4 Protected Rivalries
Arkansas	Texas, Texas A&M	Baylor, Memphis
Baylor	TCU, Texas Tech	Arkansas, Texas A&M
Houston	Memphis, SMU	South Florida, UCF
Memphis	Houston, UCF	Arkansas, South Florida
SMU	Houston, South Florida	TCU, UCF
South Florida	SMU, UCF	Houston, Memphis
TCU	Baylor, Texas Tech	SMU, Texas
Texas	Arkansas, Texas A&M	TCU, Texas Tech
Texas A&M	Arkansas, Texas	Baylor, Texas Tech
Texas Tech	Baylor, TCU	Texas, Texas A&M
UCF	Memphis, South Florida	Houston, SMU

Teams will play all other conference opponents either 6 times every 8 years OR 4 times every 6 years.
Alternate Protected Rivalries (for 2 Rivalries Only): SMU-TCU, Houston-Texas Tech, and Memphis-South Florida instead of Houston-Memphis, SMU-South Florida, and TCU-Texas Tech
Preference: 4 Protected Rivalries or Alternate 2 PRs

Group of 5 Conferences - 55 Teams

**Conference USA	Divisions	2 Protected Rivalries
Army^ (Football Only)	A1	Buffalo, Massachusetts
Buffalo (Football Only)	A1	Army, Massachusetts
Charlotte	B	Liberty, Old Dominion
East Carolina^{^}	B	Marshall, Middle Tennessee
James Madison*	B	Liberty, Old Dominion
Liberty	B	Charlotte, James Madison
Marshall	A2	East Carolina, Western Kentucky
Massachusetts (Football Only)	A1	Army, Buffalo
Middle Tennessee	A2	East Carolina, Western Kentucky
Old Dominion	B	Charlotte, James Madison
Western Kentucky	A2	Marshall, Middle Tennessee

Either uses protected rivalries or divisions (A1-2 are protected annual division rivals)
- Preference: Protected Rivalries

**Mid-American Conference	Divisions	2 Protected Rivalries
Akron	A1	Kent St., Toledo
Ball St.	B	Miami (OH), Northern Illinois
Bowling Green	A2	Kent St., Toledo
Central Michigan	B	Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan
Eastern Michigan	B	Central Michigan, Western Michigan
Kent St.	A1	Akron, Bowling Green
Miami (OH)	A3	Ball St., Ohio
Northern Illinois	B	Ball St., Ohio
Ohio	A3	Miami (OH), Northern Illinois
Toledo	A2	Akron, Bowling Green
Western Michigan	B	Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan

Either Protected Rivalry Games or Divisions (A1-3 is a protected annual division game)
- Preference: Divisions

**Mountain West Conference	Divisions	2 Protected Rivalries
Air Force^{^}	A1A	Colorado St., Hawaii
Colorado St.	A1B	Air Force, Wyoming
Fresno St.	B	Hawaii, San Jose St.
Hawaii^{^} (Football Only)	B	Air Force, Fresno St.
Nevada	B	San Jose St., UNLV
New Mexico	A2B	New Mexico St., UNLV
New Mexico St.	A2C	New Mexico, Utah St.
San Jose St.	B	Fresno St., Nevada
UNLV	B	Nevada, New Mexico
Utah St.	A3C	New Mexico St., Wyoming
Wyoming	A3B	Colorado St., Utah St.

Either Protected Rivalry Games or Divisions (A#[Letter] are 2 protected annual division rivals)
- Preference: Protected Rivalries

**Sun Belt Conference	Divisions	2 Protected Rivalries
Appalachian St.	A1A	Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern
Arkansas St.	B	Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe
Coastal Carolina	A1B	Appalachian St., Florida International
Florida Atlantic	A3B	Florida International, Troy
Florida International	A3C	Coastal Carolina, Florida Atlantic
Georgia St.	A2C	Georgia Southern, Jacksonville St.*
Georgia Southern	A2A	Appalachian State, Georgia St.
Jacksonville St.*	B	Troy, Georgia St.
Louisiana-Lafayette	B	Arkansas St., Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Monroe	B	Arkansas St., Louisiana-Lafayette
Troy	B	Florida Atlantic, Jacksonville St.*

Either uses protected rivals or divisions (A#[Letter] are 2 protected annual division rivals)
- Preference: Protected Rivalries

**Western Athletic Conference	Divisions	2 Protected Rivalries
Louisiana Tech	B	North Texas, Southern Miss
North Texas	A1	Louisiana Tech, UTSA
Rice^	A2	Tulane, UTEP
South Alabama	B	Texas St., UAB
Southern Miss	B	Louisiana Tech, UAB
Texas St.	A3	South Alabama, UTSA
Tulane^	B	Rice, Tulsa
Tulsa	A1	Tulane, UTEP
UAB^{^}	B	South Alabama, Southern Miss
UTEP	A2	Rice, Tulsa
UTSA	A3	North Texas, Texas St.

Either uses protected rivalries or divisions (A1-3 is protected annual division rival)
- Preference: Divisions
Italized = Forced Protected Rivalries
^ = Power Conference Opponents
^{^} = Potential Power Conference Opponents
*. = Moves from FCS to FBS
** = New FBS (Middle Tier) Conferences should Power 7 form top tier of Division I

12 game regular season schedule: - 8 Conference Games - 2 or 4 protected annual rivalry games (listed above) - 4 Non-Conference Games - 2 Games Min. against Power 7 Teams - Rivalry non-conference games preferred - Teams can schedule non-annual conference rivalries/key matchups in non-conference for 2 years not scheduled (won’t count towards conference record) - Home and Homes or 2 for 1s at campuses preferred - Excludes neutral games for annual rivalries (Oklahoma-Texas, Army-Navy) - 1 or 2 Bye Weeks - Hawaii Rule will be kept in place - Season starts weekend of or weekend before Labor Day Weekend (Week 0), concludes Thanksgiving Weekend - Army-Navy played the following week - Makeup games may be played during this week - Conferences could play conference championship games, but preferred they be abandoned for 8 Team College Football Playoff
Rivalry Week: - AAC: Army-Navy (following week), Boston College-Notre Dame, UCONN-Syracuse, Kentucky-Louisville, Pittsburgh-West Virginia, Rutgers-Temple, Cincinnati-Kansas St.? - ACC: Clemson-South Carolina, Duke-UNC, Florida-Florida St., Georgia-Georgia Tech, Maryland-Virginia, Miami (FL)-Virginia Tech, NC State-Wake Forest - Big Ten: Illinois-Northwestern, Indiana-Purdue, Iowa-Iowa St., Michigan-Ohio St., Michigan St.-Penn St., Minnesota-Wisconsin - Big 12: Boise St.-San Diego St., *BYU-Utah, Colorado-Nebraska, Iowa-Iowa St., Kansas-Missouri, Oklahoma-Oklahoma St., Cincinnati-Kansas St.? - PAC-12: Arizona-Arizona St., BYU-Utah, California-Stanford, Oregon-Oregon St., UCLA-USC, Washington-Washington St. - SEC: Alabama-Auburn, Arkansas-LSU, Clemson-South Carolina, Florida-Florida St., Georgia-Georgia Tech, Kentucky-Louisville, Miss State-Ole Miss, Tennessee-Vanderbilt - SWC: Arkansas-LSU, Baylor-Texas Tech, Houston-Rice, Memphis-Tulane, SMU-TCU, South Florida-UCF, Texas-Texas A&M
Conference Championship Games (if kept): - Played by Top 2 Teams in Conference - Rematches would be much more likely, but not always guaranteed to occur - Played 1st Weekend of December if played (current format) - Either played by all conferences or not played at all
8 Team College Football Playoff Options: 1. Top 8 teams, preferably conference champions, but no automatic bids to CFP - Current Format, but for 8 Teams instead of 4 2. Top 7 or 8 teams (Same as Option 1), but with an auto bid for top Group of 5 Champion if ranked in Top 12 3. Auto bids for Top 5-6 Conference Champs (possibly with a G5 bid if Top 12) - 2-3 At-Large Bids 4. All/Top 8 Conference Champs ranked in Top 12 (including G5) - At-Large Bids for spots not filled for Options 3-4 - Preference: Option 2
Definition of a Top 12 G5 Team/Playoff Rankings: - 12-0 with 1-2 P7 wins or 11-1 with 2-3 P7 wins - Teams Rankings conducted with 2 separate playoff/bowl committees + average of 6 BCS Computer Rankings and ESPN SP+ (7 rankings in total) - 12-person committee of former coaches/ADs and 12 person committee of National/Regional media members - 1 representative per conference for each committee - Ranking weighted 33.33% each or 35-35-30% Committee1-Committee2-Computer - Computer Rankings use Margin of Victory, but capped at 25 points (4 possessions) - 4 Rankings throughout 2nd half of season every other week - 5th Ranking revealed if Army-Navy or makeup games impact playoffs or NY Bowls
Quarterfinals played 2 weeks after regular season concluded (Army-Navy week) - Hosted by the higher seeds - Quarterfinal losers to New Years Bowls - Semifinals played with New Years Bowls on New Years Day w/ Rose Bowl (if Rose Bowl not hosting Semifinals) - Championship game played 2nd Saturday (if NCAA and NFL make an agreement for scheduling National Championship and NFL Playoffs) or Monday after New Years Bowls
Games for New Years Bowls + Semifinals: - 4 Semifinalists - 4 Quarterfinal Losers - Top Group of 5 Champion (if not in CFP) - Top 5-6 At-Large Teams - At-Large Teams revealed after playoffs announced - Power 7 Conference Champions guaranteed at least a New Years Bowl game - 3 Teams Max. from same conference in New Years Bowls/Playoff - New Years Bowl matchups revealed Sunday after Quarterfinals played
New Years Bowl Matchups ($8 million): - A) ACC v. American (Orange) - A) Big Ten v. PAC-12 (Rose) - A) Big 12 v. SWC (Cotton) - A/B) SEC v. SWC (Sugar) - B) Big 12 v. PAC-12 (Fiesta) - B) ACC v. SEC (Peach) - B) American v. Big Ten (Citrus) - Played on New Years Eve, New Years Day, and either Dec 30 or Jan 2
New Years Bowl Matchup Pairings: - A) Slots reserved for Conference Champions - Exception is if the Bowl selected for Semi-Finals - B) Slots reserved for At-Large Teams/Group of 5 Champion - Conferences listed in bowl matchups are bowl tie-ins from At-Large teams - Teams placed by geography with higher ranked teams having higher priority - Some NY Bowl matchups can be altered because of playoffs and/or G5 Champs/3rd place at large teams.
CFP Semifinals Locations determined by Playoff Matchups - Semis required to play at a bowl if traditional matchup produced - Top 2 Seeds can opt to choose different bowl if disadvantage - Otherwise the higher seed picks Bowl location - Bowls can’t host semis 2 years in a row unless traditional matchup produced
Bowl Eligible Teams: - 7 Wins needed to become bowl eligible - 66 teams for bowl games/playoff - If short, teams with winning records next if any (ex. 6-5 teams) - Then highest APR ranked 6-6 or 6-7 teams - 38 total bowl/playoff games - 1 Bowl/playoff game per stadium (excludes quarterfinals/National Championship) - Games will be played 2 games per day during weekday - 4 Games on Saturdays (excludes Wild Card Saturday - NFL Playoffs) - 3 Games on New Years Day - No Conference Affiliations outside New Years Bowls - Based more on team geography, ranking, and matchup than conference affiliation - Record differential between teams must be within 2 games (ex. 7-5 v. 9-3) - Teams can not play in their home stadium for a bowl game - Excludes Miami (FL) in Orange Bowl and Hawaii in Hawaii Bowl
Bowl Games:

Tier II ($5 million)	Tier III ($3 million)	Tier IV ($1 million)
Alamo	Birmingham*	Armed Forces*
(Formerly) Belk	Fenway* + Pinstripe	Cheez-It*
Las Vegas	First Responder*	Cure (Spectrum Stadium)* or Boca Raton*
Liberty	Gator + Sun	Famous Idaho Potato*
Los Angeles	Hawaii	Military*
Music City	Holiday	Mobile*
Outback	Independence*	New Mexico*
Texas	RedBox	Quick Lane*
8 Bowls	10 Bowls	8 Bowls

Eliminated Bowl Games:
- Arizona, Bahamas°, Boca Raton or Cure, Camellia^, Camping World, Frisco^, Gasparilla, Myrtle Beach^, New Orleans

Alternate Bowls if 3 Groups in Division I: - . = Bowl Games for New FBS/Semifinals and Championship - *^** = FCS Semifinals and Championship Game - = Bowl Games for Power 7 - ° = Bowl Games Eliminated
Tier II Teams: - Remaining 2nd/3rd Place Power 7 Teams + Group of 5 Champions - Group of 5 Teams cannot play each other - Top 4 Highest Ranked Teams Remaining (regardless of conference) - Played on Saturdays primarily, but can be played near New Years Bowls if a Saturday conflicts with NFL Playoffs
Tier III Teams: - Remaining 2nd/3rd Place Group of 5 Teams - Remaining 4th/5th Place Power 7 Teams - Played Mondays, Thursdays, or Fridays - Although Mondays conflict with MNF, FOX may try to compete with ESPN
Tier IV Teams: - Remaining Bowl-Eligible Teams - Played primarily on Tuesdays-Wednesdays, but can be played on Mondays
FCS - 126 Teams

**Big Sky Conference - 12	**°Missouri Valley Football Conference - 12
Cal Poly (football only)	Illinois St.
Eastern Washington	Indiana St.
Idaho	Missouri St.
Idaho St.	North Dakota
Montana	North Dakota St.
Montana St.	Northern Colorado
Northern Arizona	Northern Iowa
Portland St.	South Dakota
Sacramento St.	South Dakota St.
Southern Utah	Southern Illinois
UC-Davis (football only)	Western Illinois
Weber St.	Youngstown St.

Big South Conference - 9	Northeast Conference - 9	Southern Conference - 9
Campbell	Bryant	Chattanooga
Charleston Southern	Central Connecticut	The Citadel
Gardner-Webb	Duquesne (Football Only)	East Tennessee St.
Hampton	Long Island	Furman
Monmouth (football only)	Merrimack	Mercer
North Carolina A&T	Robert Morris	Samford
Kennesaw St. (football only)	Sacred Heart	VMI
North Alabama (football only)	Saint Francis (PA)	Western Carolina
Tarleton St. (football only)	Wagner	Wofford

Alternate or Potential Football Member(s) for Big South: Presbyterian, Stetson
Potential Monmouth or Tarleton St. leave for other conferences in football

Colonial Athletic Association - 10	^ Southwest Athletic Conference - 10
A) Albany (football only)	A) Alabama A&M
A) Maine (football only)	A) Alabama State
A) New Hampshire (football only)	A) Alcorn St.
A) Rhode Island (football only)	A) Jackson St.
A) Stony Brook (football only)	A) Mississippi Valley St.
B) Delaware	B) Arkansas Pine-Bluff
B) Elon	B) Grambling St.
B) Richmond (football only)	B) Prairie View A&M
B) Towson	B) Southern
B) William & Mary	B) Texas Southern

Potential Member for CAA: Monmouth (football only or full member)

^ Ivy League - 8	Patriot League - 8
Brown	Bucknell
Columbia	Colgate
Cornell	Fordham (football only)
Dartmouth	Georgetown (football only)
Harvard	Holy Cross
Penn	Lafayette
Princeton	Lehigh
Yale	Villanova (football only)

Potential Football Member(s) for Patriot: Marist, Monmouth, Richmond

Villanova Football may remain in CAA if any of the 3 potential football members join

^ Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference - 8	Ohio Valley Conference - 8
Bethune-Cooking	Austin Peay St.
Delaware St.	Eastern Illinois
Florida A&M	Eastern Kentucky
Howard	Murray St.
Morgan St.	SE Missouri St.
Norfolk St.	Tennessee St.
NC Central	Tennessee Tech
South Carolina St.	UT Martin

Potential Football Member for OVC: Morehead St.

° Pioneer Football League - 12	Southland Conference - 11
A) Butler	Abilene Christian
A) Dayton	Central Arkansas
A) Drake	Houston Baptist
A) Marist	Incarnate Word
A) St. Thomas?	Lamar
A) Valparaiso	McNeese St.
B) Davidson	Nicholls
B) Dixie St.	Northwestern St.
B) Morehead St.	Sam Houston St.
B) Presbyterian	Southeast Louisiana
B) San Diego	Stephen F. Austin
B) Stetson	.

Potential Member for Pioneer: Tarleton St. (if Presbyterian rejoins Big South or Stetson join Big South)
Potential Member for Southland: Tarleton St. (football only or full member)
? = If St. Thomas allowed to move up from DIII to DI
** = FBS (Middle Tier) Conferences should Power 7 Separate to form Top Tier in D1
° = Football Only Conference
^ = Likely not participating in postseason

11 game FCS regular season schedule: - 8 game conference schedule (excludes 8 team conferences) - 8 Team conferences must play a conference challenge - Ivy League v. Patriot League and Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference v. Ohio Valley Conference - 3 non-conference games - 1 Bye Week
FCS 24 Team Playoff: - Automatic bid for each conference (if accepted) - MEAC-SWAC Celebration Bowl Game can be played - 11-14 at-large bids (depending on if Ivy League, MEAC, or SWAC participates) - Same Format as Current FCS Playoff
Alternate Regular Season Schedule: (3 D1 Tiers) - Power 7 Conferences remain the same (77 teams) - 12 game New FBS regular season schedule (79 teams): - 8 game conference schedule - 4 non-conference games - 1 Bye Week - 11 game FCS regular season schedule (102 teams): - 8 game conference schedule (excludes 8 team conferences) - 8 Team conferences must play a conference challenge for 8th game - Ivy League v. Patriot League, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference v. Ohio Valley Conference - 3 non-conference games - 2 Bye Weeks
Alternate Playoff Format (If Division 1 Split into 3 Groups): - Power 7 Conferences remain at 8 Team Playoff using either Option 1, 3, or 4 - 16 Team New FBS Playoff: - Automatic bid for each conference and 9 At-Large Bids - Starts Week after Army-Navy (now played week of Conference Championship Weekend) - New FBS Bowl Games: - 16 Bowl Games ($1-3 million) + 1 Bowl Game preselected for Championship - 28 Bowl Teams (including teams eliminated in Playoffs) + 4 Playoff Semi-Finalists - Highest 2 Seeds in Playoff pick their bowl game - Remaining Bowl Games set up by team geography, ranking, and matchup - No Playoff or Regular Season rematches for Bowl Games - 16 or 20 Team FCS Playoff: - 16 Team Playoff if MEAC and SWAC do not participate (remains 16 Team Playoff if Ivy League Participates) - 20 Team Playoff if MEAC and SWAC participate regardless of Ivy League participation - Participate implies a Conference sends their Champion to the playoff as opposed to keeping their champion out, but another team can make it as an at-large bid - Automatic bid for each conference (if accepted) - MEAC-SWAC Celebration Bowl Game can be played, if kept, as Bowl Game or Playoff Game - SWAC Championship could be played week of or before Army-Navy - Both Playoffs use higher seeds as hosts for each round prior to Semifinals

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